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Investissements directs américains et européens dans les PECOs. Quel rôle des effets de change ?

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  • Christian Aubin
  • Jean-Pierre Berdot
  • Daniel Goyeau
  • Jacques Léonard
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    Abstract

    This paper first reviews the mainstream literature concerning the explanatory factors of fdis in the ceecs and specifically the exchange rate effects. We then present an empirical analysis of medium and long term exchange rate effects over the period 1995/2002, comparing us and eu investors behaviours. As regards the dynamics of fdis in the ceecs, the empirical results confirm the standard literature: two behavioural logics seem to appear and these are differently weighted for us and eu investors. If European fdi mainly aims at entering a foreign market, the American one also aims at relocating production so as to reexport the product to the domestic market. Notwithstanding the impact of exchange rate seems to be less obvious. Neither the level nor the volatility of the exchange rate appear to be significant; and neither is the de jure exchange rate regime. Nevertheless, an index of the de facto exchange regime is quite relevant. It is worth noting that in the case of ceecs the problem of exchange rate risk is specific: in the long run, the pegging of their currencies to the euro will become harder and harder before they join the European single currency. So, exchange rate effects may be altered throughout the transition process towards monetary union. Classification JEL : F21, F31, F36

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue économique.

    Volume (Year): 57 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 771-792

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    Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_574_0771

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    1. Laura Resmini, 2000. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the CEECs: New evidence from sectoral patterns," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 8(3), pages 665-689, November.
    2. Michael W. Klein & Eric Rosengren, 1992. "The Real Exchange Rate and Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: Relative Wealth vs. Relative Wage Effects," NBER Working Papers 4192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    10. Hélène Poirson, 2001. "How Do Countries Choose their Exchange Rate Regime?," IMF Working Papers 01/46, International Monetary Fund.
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    12. Barrell, Ray & Pain, Nigel, 1998. "Real Exchange Rates, Agglomerations, and Irreversibilities: Macroeconomic Policy and FDI in EMU," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 152-67, Autumn.
    13. Holden, Paul & Holden, Merle & Suss, Esther C, 1979. "The Determinants of Exchange Rate Flexibility: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(3), pages 327-33, August.
    14. Benassy-Quere, AgnEs & Fontagne, Lionel & LahrEche-Revil, Amina, 2001. "Exchange-Rate Strategies in the Competition for Attracting Foreign Direct Investment," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 178-198, June.
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