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Origines et conséquence des incertitudes pesant sur le solde commercial de la zone euro

Author

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  • Matthieu Darracq-Pariès
  • Hélène Erkel-Rousse

Abstract

Owing to conceptual differences between trade data sources and to statistical problems relating in particular to the Intrastat system for declaring intra-EC trade flows, the level and performance of the euro-zone trade balance are known only with a margin of uncertainty. The first two sections of this article explain in detail the main sources of measurement differences affecting data on international trade, especially within the European Union. This information should be known to any economist wishing to use this type of data in order to avoid serious analytical errors. It is then explained why, as a performance indicator for European monetary union and a factor in trade negotiations, the euro-zone trade balance assumes particular importance, especially in relations between Europe and the United States. At the same time it is pointed out that statistical uncertainties relating to trade data are not the sole prerogative of Europe but are also to be met with in our American partner.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthieu Darracq-Pariès & Hélène Erkel-Rousse, 2002. "Origines et conséquence des incertitudes pesant sur le solde commercial de la zone euro," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(1), pages 215-230.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:ecoldc:ecop_152_0215
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    Cited by:

    1. Hélène Erkel-Rousse & Françoise Le Gallo, 2002. "Compétitivités prix et qualité dans le commerce international : une analyse empirique des échanges de 12 pays de l’OCDE," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 152(1), pages 93-113.

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