Reductions in employers' social security contributions in a wage norm and automatic indexing régime
AbstractThe article investigates the possible labour market and fiscal impacts of labour tax reductions within a macroeconometric model that allows for various wage responses to tax policies and to policy-induced price changes. As such, the model captures different institutional settings of wage formation. We consider reductions in employers' social security contributions and fiscal compensation through value added or production taxes in a typically Belgian setting, i.e. a wage norm regime with automatic price indexing of wages. The (quarterly) macroeconometric model we use has been developed as part of a larger project within the European System of Central Banks and is essentially Neo Keynesian in its approach. The equilibrium in the real economy is determined by the supply side, but the short run is determined by demand. Nominal rigidities slow down the adjustment process. One of the key features of the model is its ability to distinguish between 'intrinsic' adjustments (related to delayed responses through costly adjustment processes) and 'expectation' dynamics (related to agents anticipating and incorporating future information into their decision making). Forward looking behaviour is therefore fairly widespread in the model. The model contains two alternatives for wage formation. In the first, wages are determined endogenously as the result of a bargaining process between unions and firms, following a 'right to manage' model. In the second, a wage norm and price indexing regime is mimicked. Two subroutines, determining the degree of price indexing of wages, are available: a 'nominal rule' that keeps nominal wages equal to a reference value an a 'real rule' that targets the real wage. These rules can both concern labour costs or gross wages, depending on the degree of tax shifting from employers to employees. To determine the labour market impact of the tax policy, the reaction of wages to the reduction in employers' social security contributions and to the fiscal compensation measures proves crucial. The more the initial reductions in employers' contributions are used to finance higher gross wages, and the more the inflationary effects of fiscal compensation measures are passed on in wages, the less positive the impact on employment will be. This means that little job creation is to be expected without a special co-ordination effort between all labour market players. Labour tax reductions are by no means a substitute for other labour market reforms.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its journal Brussels economic review.
Volume (Year): 46 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
macroeconometric modelling; taxes on labour; wage formation;
Other versions of this item:
- Koen Burggraeve & Philip Du Caju, 2003. "The labour market and fiscal impact of labour reductions: the case of reduction of employers' social security contributions under a wage norm regime with automatic price indexing of wages," Working Paper Research 36, National Bank of Belgium.
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
- J32 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Retirement Plans; Private Pensions
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- Bart Cockx & Henri Sneessens & Bruno Van der linden, 2004.
"Allégements de charges sociales : une mesure à promouvoir mais à réformer,"
Reflets et perspectives de la vie économique,
De Boeck Université, vol. 0(1), pages 55-68.
- Bart Cockx & Henri Sneessens & Bruno Van der Linden, 2003. "Allégements de charges sociales : une mesure à promouvoir mais à réformer," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 15, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
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