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The Ooghe-Joos-De Vos failure prédiction models: a cross-industry validation

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Author Info

  • Hubert Ooghe
  • Sofie Balcaen
  • Jan Camerlynck

Abstract

This study compares the predictive performances of the Ooghe-Joos-De Vos models across different industries and subgroups concerning size-class and annual accounts form. Type I, type II and unweighted error rates, Gini-coefficients and trade-off functions are analysed. The results indicate a wide variety of performances for the different subgroups. Firstly, both OJD models seem to perform best for the classical manufacturing industries, while they are poorer predictors for the service industries. Secondly, the short-term OJD model has the best predictive abilities for large companies and companies with a complete annual accounts form. In general, the performance differences of the short-term model are much larger than those of the medium-term model and, on average, the medium-term model shows a lower classification accuracy than the short-term model due to a stronger tendency to misclassify non-failing firms as failing.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its journal Brussels economic review.

Volume (Year): 46 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 39-70

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Handle: RePEc:bxr:bxrceb:y:2003:v:46:i:1:p:39-70

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Related research

Keywords: failure prédiction model; validation; performance measures; industry; size;

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Cited by:
  1. D. Van Den Poel, 2003. "Predicting Mail-Order Repeat Buying: Which Variables Matter?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 03/191, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  2. De Cleyn S. & Braet J., 2006. "The evolution and performance of spin-off ventures: integration and elaboration of existing models," Working Papers 2006031, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.

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