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The Ooghe-Joos-De Vos Failure Prediction Models: A Cross-Industry Validation

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Author Info
Hubert Ooghe (Department of Corporate Finance, Ghent University)
Sofie Balcaen (Department of Corporate Finance, Ghent University)
Jan Camerlynck

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Abstract

This study compares the predictive performances of the Ooghe-Joos-De Vos models across different industries and subgroups concerning size-class and annual accounts form. Type I, type II and unweighted error rates, Gini-coefficients and trade-off functions are analysed. The results indicate a wide variety of performances for the different subgroups. Firstly, both OJD models seem to perform best for the classical manufacturing industries, while they are poorer predictors for the service industries. Secondly, the short-term OJD model has the best predictive abilities for large companies and companies with a complete annual accounts form. In general, the performance differences of the short-term model are much larger than those of the medium-term model and, on average, the medium-term model shows a lower classification accuracy than the short-term model due to a stronger tendency to misclassify non-failing firms as failing.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Editions du DULBEA, Université libre de Bruxelles, Department of Applied Economics (DULBEA) in its journal Brussels Economic Journal/Cahiers Economiques de Bruxelles.

Volume (Year): 46 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 39-70
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Handle: RePEc:bxr:bxrceb:y:2003:v:46:i:1:p:39-70

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Related research
Keywords: failure prediction model; validation; performance measures; industry; size;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
M49 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting - - Accounting - - - Other

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Nygard, Fredrik & Sandstrom, Arne, 1989. "Income inequality measures based on sample surveys," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 81-95, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Platt, Harlan D., 1989. "The determinants of interindustry failure," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 107-126, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. De Cleyn S. & Braet J., 2006. "The evolution and performance of spin-off ventures: integration and elaboration of existing models," Working Papers 2006031, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. D. Van Den Poel, 2003. "Predicting Mail-Order Repeat Buying: Which Variables Matter?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 03/191, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
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