Risk-Return Trade-Off in Indian Capital Market During Last Two Decades with Special Emphasis on Crisis Period
AbstractThis paper examines the risk-return relationship in Indian stock market using symmetric and asymmetric GARCH-in-mean (GARCH-M) models. First the standard GARCH-M model is used, next since variance is proxy for risk, we ascertain if there is any significant relation between asymmetric variance and return using TGARCH-M, EGARCH-M and Power GARCH models. The study uses daily data on popular index S&P CNX Nifty of National Stock Exchange, India, during a period of two decades from July, 1990 to November, 2010. Further the period of Asian crisis is covered during the pre-derivative period of a decade and sub-prime crisis is covered during the post-derivative period of a decade to see the behaviour of volatility and risk-return relationship. The results show that both the TGARCH-M and PGARCH-M models are good for Indian market conditions. The asymmetric models find strong evidence of time-varying, highly persistent and predictable volatility in Indian market. It establishes that return is positively related to risk in Indian market during all periods. The risk-return relationship is positive and significant only at higher lags that too in the presence of dummyfut (variable which takes value 1 after derivatives and 0 before it). Further during sub-period analysis we find that risk-return parameter is higher in magnitude in pre-derivative period compared to post-derivative period. In both periods both the crisis had negative effect on return and positive effect on volatility. The rise in volatility during Sub-prime crisis is sharper compared to during Asian crisis. The findings are useful for financial decision making.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Faculty of Business and Administration, University of Bucharest in its journal Annals EAS.
Volume (Year): 5 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (December)
Conditional Volatility; Leverage effect; GARCH-in-mean; Risk-return relationship; Asian crisis; Sub-prime crisis;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sudheer Chava & Amiyatosh Purnanandam, 2010. "Is Default Risk Negatively Related to Stock Returns?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2523-2559, June.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February.
- David K. Backus & Allan W. Gregory, 1992.
"Theoretical Relations Between Risk Premiums and Conditional Variances,"
92-18a, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Backus, David K & Gregory, Allan W, 1993. "Theoretical Relations between Risk Premiums and Conditional Variances," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 177-85, April.
- Hui Guo & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2006.
"Uncovering the Risk-Return Relation in the Stock Market,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1433-1463, 06.
- Hui Guo & Robert Whitelaw, 2005. "Uncovering the risk-return relation in the stock market," Working Papers 2001-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Hui Guo & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2003. "Uncovering the Risk-Return Relation in the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 9927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. " The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-57, March.
- Lundblad, Christian, 2007. "The risk return tradeoff in the long run: 1836-2003," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 123-150, July.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Zhou, Hao, 2006. "Volatility puzzles: a simple framework for gauging return-volatility regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 123-150.
- Lubos Pastor & Meenakshi Sinha & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2006.
"Estimating the Intertemporal Risk-Return Tradeoff Using the Implied Cost of Capital,"
NBER Working Papers
11941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lubos Pástor & Meenakshi Sinha & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2008. "Estimating the Intertemporal Risk-Return Tradeoff Using the Implied Cost of Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2859-2897, December.
- Pástor, Luboš & Sinha, Meenakshi & Swaminathan, Bhaskaran, 2006. "Estimating the Intertemporal Risk-Return Tradeoff Using the Implied Cost of Capital," CEPR Discussion Papers 5462, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993.
" On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Whitelaw, Robert F, 2000. "Stock Market Risk and Return: An Equilibrium Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(3), pages 521-47.
- Lin Peng & Turan G. Bali, 2006. "Is there a risk-return trade-off? Evidence from high-frequency data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1169-1198.
- Scruggs, John T. & Glabadanidis, Paskalis, 2003. "Risk Premia and the Dynamic Covariance between Stock and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(02), pages 295-316, June.
- Mohanty, Roshni & P, Srinivasan, 2014. "The Time-Varying Risk and Return Trade Off in Indian Stock Markets," MPRA Paper 55660, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Cosmin Catalin Olteanu).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.