IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/buc/jpredm/v6y2012i2p47-58.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Incentives In Prediction Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Leonard Wolk
  • Ronald Peeters

Abstract

Prediction markets are powerful devices to forecast outcomes of future events. Information from the public domain is gradually absorbed into contract prices that directly translate into likelihoods of future events. The importance of monetary incentives on the aggregation of the traders' beliefs is not yet well understood. By conducting time series analysis on four prediction markets covering the 2008 presidential election in the U.S., we find that the trends for play-money and real-money markets fail to co-move for a substantial portion of the traded contracts, despite of the presence of a market maker who aligns trades between the two markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonard Wolk & Ronald Peeters, 2012. "Incentives In Prediction Markets," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 6(2), pages 47-58.
    • Handle: RePEc:buc:jpredm:v:6:y:2012:i:2:p:47-58
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ubplj.org/index.php/jpm/article/view/501
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:buc:jpredm:v:6:y:2012:i:2:p:47-58. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dominic Cortis, University of Malta (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ubpl.co.uk/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.