Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Understanding the Plott-Wit-Yang Paradox

Contents:

Author Info

  • Katarína Kálovcová
  • Andreas Ortmann

Abstract

Plott, Wit & Yang (2003) conduct a betting market experiment and find: First, information was aggregated. This suggests that traders updated their private information based on observed market odds. Second, a model based only on the use of private information seems to fit their data best. The authors call this paradoxical. Because the original data are lost, we replicate their experiment. Our results suggest that the paradox seems due to aggregate rather than individual level data analysis. We analyze the individual level data and explain the paradoxical results reported in Plott et al. (2003).

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/ubpl/jpm/2009/00000003/00000003/art00003
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Buckingham Press in its journal Journal of Prediction Markets.

Volume (Year): 3 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Pages: 33-44

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:buc:jpredm:v:3:y:2009:i:3:p:33-44

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.ubpl.co.uk/

Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://www.predictionmarketjournal.com/index_files/Page418.htm

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets," NBER Working Papers 10359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Urs Fischbacher, 2007. "z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 171-178, June.
  3. Charles R. Plott & Jorgen Wit & Winston C. Yang, 2003. "Parimutuel betting markets as information aggregation devices: experimental results," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 311-351, 09.
  4. Glenn W. Harrison & Eric Johnson & Melayne M. McInnes & E. Elisabet Rutstr�m, 2005. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 897-901, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:buc:jpredm:v:3:y:2009:i:3:p:33-44. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Victor Matheson, College of the Holy Cross).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.