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Comparing Prediction Market Prices and Opinion Polls in Political Elections

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  • Lionel Page

Abstract

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Suggested Citation

  • Lionel Page, 2008. "Comparing Prediction Market Prices and Opinion Polls in Political Elections," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 2(1), pages 91-97, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:buc:jpredm:v:2:y:2008:i:1:p:91-97
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    Cited by:

    1. Schadner, Wolfgang, 2022. "U.S. Politics from a multifractal perspective," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    2. Robert Reig & Ramona Schoder, 2010. "Forecasting Accuracy: Comparing Prediction Markets And Surveys – An Experimental Study," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 4(3), pages 1-19.
    3. Chih‐Yu Chin & Cheng‐Lung Wang, 2021. "A new insight into combining forecasts for elections: The role of social media," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 132-143, January.
    4. Elliot Tonkes & Dharma Lesmono, 2010. "Consistency in the US Congressional Popular Opinion Polls and Prediction Markets," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 4(2), pages 45-64, September.
    5. Reade, J. James & Vaughan Williams, Leighton, 2019. "Polls to probabilities: Comparing prediction markets and opinion polls," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 336-350.
    6. Joyce E. Berg & John Geweke & Thomas A. Rietz, 2010. "Memoirs of an indifferent trader: Estimating forecast distributions from prediction markets," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 1(1), pages 163-186, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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