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Efficiency in Betting Markets: Evidence from English Football

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Author Info

  • Bruno Deschamps
  • Olivier Gergaud

Abstract

We analyze the efficiency of English football betting markets between 2002 and 2006. We find evidence of a positive favourite-longshot bias for both home odds and away odds. Draw odds are instead characterized by a negative longshot bias. We also identify a draw bias in the sense that betting at draw odds yields a higher return than betting at home or away odds. Finally, we investigate betting strategies that exploit the variance of odds between bookmakers.

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File URL: http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/ubpl/jpm/2007/00000001/00000001/art00005
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Buckingham Press in its journal Journal of Prediction Markets.

Volume (Year): 1 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 61-73

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Handle: RePEc:buc:jpredm:v:1:y:2007:i:1:p:61-73

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Web: http://www.predictionmarketjournal.com/index_files/Page418.htm

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Cited by:
  1. Nilsson, HÃ¥kan & Andersson, Patric, 2010. "Making the seemingly impossible appear possible: Effects of conjunction fallacies in evaluations of bets on football games," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 172-180, April.
  2. Karen Croxson & J. James Reade, 2011. "Exchange vs Dealers: A High-Frequency Analysis of In-Play Betting Prices," Discussion Papers 11-19, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  3. Herman O. Stekler & David Sendor & Richard Verlander, 2009. "Issues in Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2009-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.

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