Further Analysis of the Markowitz Model of Utility with a Small Degree of Probability Distortion
AbstractExplanation of the Allais paradox and the preference of many for multiple prize lottery tickets provide a rationale for why a model of agent's choice under uncertainty should embody the assumption that they distort probabilities. However the degree of probability distortion required to explain gambling on long shots in Cumulative Prospect Theory appears problematic since it implies subjective expected rates of return are dramatically higher than objective returns. Here we show that a Markowitz model of expected utility, supplemented by a small degree of probability distortion, has qualitatively similar predictions as Cumulative Prospect Theory for numerous experimental outcomes as well as the indifference curves between expected return and objective probabilities for a given stake gamble. In addition we show how a small degree of probability distortion can lead to a preference for a multiple prize lottery which has a rather different prize structure and associated probabilities than the optimally chosen one prize lottery even though the utility gain is small.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by University of Buckingham Press in its journal Journal of Gambling Business and Economics.
Volume (Year): 2 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.ubpl.co.uk/
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Recreation; Tourism
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Victor Matheson, College of the Holy Cross).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.