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Long Memory Inflationary Dynamics: The Case of Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Reisen Valderio A

    (University Federal do Espirito Santo)

  • Cribari-Neto Francisco

    (University Federal de Pernambuco)

  • Jensen Mark J

    (Brigham Young University)

Abstract

It has been argued by several authors that the inflationary dynamics in Brazil follow a unit root process, thus displaying some inertia. Indeed, Cati, et al. (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1999) have found that the inflationary dynamics in Brazil are nearly fully inertial. We estimate the fractional differencing parameter using an ARFIMA specification for the inflation rate in that country and our results suggest that the inflationary dynamics are better modeled by a long memory process than by a unit root mechanism, thus implying that there is no inertia in inflation, contrary to what has been found by other researchers. We also found that the estimates of the fractional parameter are invariant to first differencing.

Suggested Citation

  • Reisen Valderio A & Cribari-Neto Francisco & Jensen Mark J, 2003. "Long Memory Inflationary Dynamics: The Case of Brazil," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-18, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:7:y:2003:i:3:n:3
    DOI: 10.2202/1558-3708.1157
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Jensen Mark J., 1999. "An Approximate Wavelet MLE of Short- and Long-Memory Parameters," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 1-17, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Cerisola & Gaston Gelos, 2009. "What drives inflation expectations in Brazil? An empirical analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(10), pages 1215-1227.
    2. Jesús Tomás Monge Moreno & Manuel Monge, 2023. "Coronavirus, Vaccination and the Reaction of Consumer Sentiment in The United States: Time Trends and Persistence Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-8, April.
    3. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko & Poza, Carlos, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic and the degree of persistence of US stock prices and bond yields," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 118-123.
    4. Moreira, Ricardo Ramalhete & Monte, Edson Zambon, 2020. "Reviewing monetary policy inertia and its effects: The fractional integration approach for an emerging economy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 34-41.
    5. Chu Shiou-Yen & Shane Christopher, 2017. "Using the hybrid Phillips curve with memory to forecast US inflation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 1-16, September.
    6. Ben Nasr, Adnen & Trabelsi, Abdelwahed, 2005. "Seasonal and Periodic Long Memory Models in the In�ation Rates," MPRA Paper 22690, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Feb 2006.

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