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Intraday and Interday Basis Dynamics: Evidence from the FTSE 100 Index Futures Market

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  • Garrett Ian

    (University of Manchester)

  • Taylor Nicholas

    (Cardiff University)

Abstract

We examine the intraday and interday dynamics of both the level of and changes in the FTSE (Financial Times-Stock Exchange) 100 index futures mispricing. Like numerous previous studies we find significant evidence of mean reversion and hence predictability in mispricing changes measured over high (minute-by-minute) and low (daily) frequencies. Contrary to other studies we show explicitly that for high-frequency data, this predictability is due not to microstructure effects but to arbitrage activity. Using a threshold autoregressive model that is consistent with arbitrage behavior, we show that such models imply first-order autocorrelation in mispricing changes similar in magnitude to that actually observed. For low-frequency data, we show that predictability is driven neither by arbitrage activity nor by microstructure effects. Rather, it is a statistical illusion that is the result of overdifferencing a trend-stationary series.

Suggested Citation

  • Garrett Ian & Taylor Nicholas, 2001. "Intraday and Interday Basis Dynamics: Evidence from the FTSE 100 Index Futures Market," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-22, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:5:y:2001:i:2:n:3
    DOI: 10.2202/1558-3708.1076
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Taylor, Nicholas, 2004. "Trading intensity, volatility, and arbitrage activity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1137-1162, May.
    3. Michael Graham & Jarno Kiviaho & Jussi Nikkinen, 2013. "Short-term and long-term dependencies of the S&P 500 index and commodity prices," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 583-592, March.
    4. Vipul, 2008. "Mispricing, Volume, Volatility and Open Interest," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 7(3), pages 263-292, December.
    5. Nicholas Taylor, 2007. "A New Econometric Model of Index Arbitrage," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(1), pages 159-183, January.

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