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A Bayesian approach for capturing daily heterogeneity in intra-daily durations time series

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  • Brownlees Christian T.

    ()
    (Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Barcelona GSE, Barcelona 08005, Spain)

  • Vannucci Marina

    (Department of Statistics, Rice University, Houston, TX 77005, USA)

Abstract

Intra-daily financial durations time series typically exhibit evidence of long range dependence. This has motivated the introduction of models able to reproduce this stylized fact, like the Fractionally Integrated Autoregressive Conditional Duration Model. In this work we introduce a novel specification able to capture long range dependence. We propose a three component model that consists of an autoregressive daily random effect, a semiparametric time-of-day effect and an intra-daily dynamic component: the Mixed Autoregressive Conditional Duration (Mixed ACD) Model. The random effect component allows for heterogeneity in mean reversal within a day and captures low frequency dynamics in the duration time series. The joint estimation of the model parameters is carried out using MCMC techniques based on the Bayesian formulation of the model. The empirical application to a set of widely traded US tickers shows that the model is able to capture low frequency dependence in duration time series. We also find that the degree of dependence and dispersion of low frequency dynamics is higher in periods of higher financial distress.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 17 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 21-46

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:17:y:2013:i:1:p:21-46:n:2

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Cited by:
  1. Taras Bodnar & Nikolaus Hautsch, 2012. "Copula-Based Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multiplicative Error Processes," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2012-044, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.

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