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Odd odds: The UEFA Champions League Round of 16 draw

Author

Listed:
  • Klößner Stefan
  • Becker Martin

    (Statistics and Econometrics, Saarland University, Campus C3 1, 66123 Saarbrücken, Germany)

Abstract

The UEFA Champions League Round of 16 is characterized by restrictions that prevent teams from the same preliminary group and the same nations from matches against each other. Together with the draw procedure currently employed by UEFA, this leads to odd probabilities: in 2012/2013, there were more outcomes of the draw with German Schalke 04 facing Ukrainian Shakhtar Donetsk than there were results where they were matched with Galatasaray Istanbul. In contrast, the probability of Schalke being drawn against Galatasaray exceeded that of playing Shakhtar. We show that this strange effect is due to the group restriction and the mechanism used by UEFA for the draw. Additionally, we provide procedures with which UEFA could produce adequate probabilities for the draw.

Suggested Citation

  • Klößner Stefan & Becker Martin, 2013. "Odd odds: The UEFA Champions League Round of 16 draw," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 249-270, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:9:y:2013:i:3:p:249-270:n:5
    DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2013-0016
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eugster Manuel J. A. & Gertheiss Jan & Kaiser Sebastian, 2011. "Having the Second Leg at Home - Advantage in the UEFA Champions League Knockout Phase?," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-11, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. László Csató, 2020. "The UEFA Champions League seeding is not strategy-proof since the 2015/16 season," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 292(1), pages 161-169, September.
    2. Csató László, 2022. "The effects of draw restrictions on knockout tournaments," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 18(4), pages 227-239, December.
    3. Csató, László, 2022. "Quantifying incentive (in)compatibility: A case study from sports," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 302(2), pages 717-726.

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