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Monte Carlo Appraisals of Gravity Model Specifications

Author

Listed:
  • Schaefer Kurt C

    (Calvin College)

  • Anderson Michael A

    (Washington and Lee University)

  • Ferrantino Michael J

    (US International Trade Commission)

Abstract

Many improvements have been proposed for the basic gravity model specification, most of which are confirmed by standard statistical tests due to the large number of observations often used to estimate such models. We use Monte Carlo experiments to examine situations in which features of models may be found statistically significant (or insignificant) when it is known ex ante that they are absent (or present) in the underlying data process. Erroneous assumptions about the presence or absence of lagged dependent variables, fixed effects, free-trade associations and custom unions are shown to introduce an economically important bias in estimates of the coefficients of interest, and in some cases to be confirmed spuriously. Policy effects for such initiatives as free trade associations and currency unions can also be confirmed spuriously when they do not exist in the data-generating process.

Suggested Citation

  • Schaefer Kurt C & Anderson Michael A & Ferrantino Michael J, 2008. "Monte Carlo Appraisals of Gravity Model Specifications," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-26, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:glecon:v:8:y:2008:i:1:n:2
    DOI: 10.2202/1524-5861.1340
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    3. Briggs Kristie, 2012. "Patents, Technology Adaptation, and Exports to Developing Countries," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-20, March.
    4. Schaak, Henning, 2015. "The Impact of Free Trade Agreements on International Agricultural Trade: A Gravity Application on the Dairy Product Trade and the ASEAN-China-FTA," 55th Annual Conference, Giessen, Germany, September 23-25, 2015 211619, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    5. Alessandro Olper & Valentina Raimondi, 2009. "Patterns and Determinants of International Trade Costs in the Food Industry," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 273-297, June.
    6. Owen, P. Dorian & Winchester, Niven, 2014. "The impact of US fresh milk production standards on dairy trade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1008-1021.
    7. Richard Frensch, 2008. "Trade liberalisation, adoption costs, and import margins in CEEC and OECD trade," Working Papers 269, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    8. Ernest Miguélez & Rorina Moreno, 2012. "“What attracts knowledge workers? The role of space, social connections, institutions, jobs and amenities”," IREA Working Papers 201204, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2012.
    9. Kim Myeong Hwan, 2011. "Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade? Revisited," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 11(2), pages 1-21, July.
    10. Ernest Miguélez & Rosina Moreno, 2014. "What Attracts Knowledge Workers? The Role Of Space And Social Networks," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 33-60, January.
    11. Michael J. Ferrantino, 2006. "Quantifying the Trade and Economic Effects of Non-Tariff Measures," OECD Trade Policy Papers 28, OECD Publishing.
    12. Apokin, Alexander (Апокин, Александр) & Gnidchenko, Andrey (Гнидченко, Андрей) & Sabelnikova, Ekaterina (Сабельникова, Екатерина), 2017. "Import Substitution Potential and Gains from Economic Integration: Disaggregated Estimations [Потенциал Импортозамещения И Выгоды От Экономической Интеграции: Дезагрегированные Оценки]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 2, pages 44-71, April.
    13. Zwinkels, Remco C.J. & Beugelsdijk, Sjoerd, 2010. "Gravity equations: Workhorse or Trojan horse in explaining trade and FDI patterns across time and space?," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 102-115, February.
    14. Raimondi, Valentina & Olper, Alessandro, 2009. "The sensitivity of trade flows to trade barriers," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 50658, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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