A Strategic Analysis of Terrorist Activity and Counter-Terrorism Policies
AbstractThis paper develops a model of terrorist activity and behavior. A terrorist organization chooses the size and the number of attacks. The defending state chooses the level of security-deterrence measures. The equilibrium sequence is such that the Organization moves first, followed by the State. A defensive policy such as an innovation in security-deterrence technology tends to reduce the size of attacks but increase their number, while an offensive policy, lowering the total "strike" or "output" potential of a terrorist organization, has opposite effects. Both policies reduce the expected damage from terror. An individual's decision to become a terrorist or a financier is also modeled, leading to endogenous supplies of terrorists and funds. The effects of terrorist-flushing measures, provisions to curb the flow of funds to terrorist organizations and income-enhancing policies are evaluated by taking into account their "supply-side" effects.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by De Gruyter in its journal The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics.
Volume (Year): topics.6 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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- C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
- D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
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- Das, Satya P. & Roy Chowdhury, Prabal, 2008.
"Deterrence, Preemption and Panic: A Common-Enemy Problem of Terrorism,"
8223, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Satya P. Das & Prabal Roy Chowdhury, 2008. "Deterrence, preemption and panic: A Common-enemy problem of terrorism," Indian Statistical Institute, Planning Unit, New Delhi Discussion Papers 08-04, Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi, India.
- Das, Satya P., 2008. "Some mechanisms of terror cycles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(3-4), pages 644-656, September.
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