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Exchange Rate Regimes, Specialization and Trade Volume

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  • Devereux Michael B

    ()
    (University of British Columbia)

  • Voss Graham M

    ()
    (University of Victoria and Hong Kong Institute of Monetary Research)

Abstract

We develop a general equilibrium monetary model of endogenous specialization and international trade to examine the degree of specialization and trade volume under alternative monetary systems, a multiple currency system with a flexible exchange rate and a common currency system. Where demand shocks are important, we demonstrate an increase in specialization, trade and welfare under the common currency relative to flexible exchange rates. The weaker the substitution between exports and imports or the greater the risk aversion, the stronger are these effects. Where supply shocks are important, the effects on specialization and trade are smaller and ambiguous in direction, though the welfare effects are comparable to those for demand shocks. Broadly speaking, the model's results are qualitatively consistent with the empirical results of Rose (2000), which finds an increase in trade due to the adoption of a common currency.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 6 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
Pages: 1-36

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:topics.6:y:2006:i:2:n:12

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  1. Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," NBER Working Papers 7432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August.
  3. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," CEPR Discussion Papers 1131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Scholarly Articles 12491026, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  6. Michael Devereux & Charles Engel & Cedric Tille, 1999. "Exchange-Rate Pass-Through and the Welfare Effects of the Euro," Working Papers 0034, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  7. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
  8. Andrew K. Rose & T. D. Stanley, 2005. "A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 347-365, 07.
  9. Voss, G M, 1998. "Monetary Integration, Uncertainty and the Role of Money Finance," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 65(258), pages 231-45, May.
  10. Harold L. Cole & Maurice Obstfeld, 1989. "Commodity Trade and International Risk Sharing: How Much Do Financial Markets Matter?," NBER Working Papers 3027, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International business cycles: theory vs. evidence," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 14-29.
  12. Kemp, Murray C & Liviatan, Nissan, 1973. "Production and Trade Patterns under Uncertainty," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 49(126), pages 215-27, June.
  13. Devereux, Michael B., 2004. "Should the exchange rate be a shock absorber?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 359-377, March.
  14. Rose, Andrew K, 2003. "A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 4341, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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