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Convergence and Stability in U.S. Employment Rates

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  • Rowthorn Robert

    ()
    (University of Cambridge)

  • Glyn Andrew J

    ()
    (University of Oxford)

Abstract

Since the seminal work of Blanchard and Katz, it has been widely believed that interstate migration causes state-level employment rates in the United States to revert rapidly to normal following a regional employment shock. This paper identifies two sources of bias in conventional estimates of the dynamics of regional labor markets: small sample bias stemming from the use of short time series, and measurement error in survey based series for employment status at the state level. Estimates that use more reliable series and correct for these biases suggest little or no mean reversion in state-level employment rates. Thus the perception that U.S. regional labor markets are highly flexible appears to be incorrect.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 6 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
Pages: 1-43

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:contributions.6:y:2006:i:1:n:4

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Cited by:
  1. Michael Elsby & Bart Hobjin & Aysegül Sahin, 2010. "The labor market in the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 2010-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Roberto Bande & Marika Karanassou, 2010. "Spanish Regional Unemployment Revisited: The Role of Capital Accumulation," Working Papers 666, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  3. David McArthur & Inge Thorsen, 2011. "Determinants of internal migration in Norway," ERSA conference papers ersa10p532, European Regional Science Association.
  4. David Philip Mcarthur & Inge Thorsen & Jan Ubøe, 2010. "A Micro-Simulation Approach to Modelling Spatial Unemployment Disparities," Growth and Change, Gatton College of Business and Economics, University of Kentucky, vol. 41(3), pages 374-402.
  5. Bayer, Christian & Juessen, Falko, 2006. "Convergence in West German Regional Unemployment Rates," Technical Reports 2006,39, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  6. Werner, Daniel, 2013. "Regional convergence analysis for skill-specific employment groups," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79706, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  7. James R. Hines Jr., 2010. "State Fiscal Policies and Transitory Income Fluctuations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(2 (Fall)), pages 313-350.
  8. Partridge, Mark & Betz, Mike, 2012. "Country Road Take Me Home: Migration Patterns in the Appalachia America and Place-Based Policy," MPRA Paper 38293, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2013. "Modelling the behaviour of unemployment rates in the US over time and across space," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(22), pages 5711-5722.
  10. Bande, Roberto & Karanassou, Marika, 2011. "The NRU and the Evolution of Regional Disparities in Spanish Unemployment," IZA Discussion Papers 5838, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  11. Partridge, Mark D. & Rickman, Dan S. & Olfert, M. Rose & Tan, Ying, 2012. "When spatial equilibrium fails: is place-based policy second best?," MPRA Paper 40270, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Timothy J. Bartik, 2014. "How Effects of Local Labor Demand Shocks Vary with Local Labor Market Conditions," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles 14-202, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.

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