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Convergence and Stability in U.S. Employment Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Rowthorn Robert

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Glyn Andrew J

    (University of Oxford)

Abstract

Since the seminal work of Blanchard and Katz, it has been widely believed that interstate migration causes state-level employment rates in the United States to revert rapidly to normal following a regional employment shock. This paper identifies two sources of bias in conventional estimates of the dynamics of regional labor markets: small sample bias stemming from the use of short time series, and measurement error in survey based series for employment status at the state level. Estimates that use more reliable series and correct for these biases suggest little or no mean reversion in state-level employment rates. Thus the perception that U.S. regional labor markets are highly flexible appears to be incorrect.

Suggested Citation

  • Rowthorn Robert & Glyn Andrew J, 2006. "Convergence and Stability in U.S. Employment Rates," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-43, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:contributions.6:y:2006:i:1:n:4
    DOI: 10.2202/1534-6005.1368
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Werner, Daniel, 2013. "Regional convergence analysis for skill-specific employment groups," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79706, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2013. "Modelling the behaviour of unemployment rates in the US over time and across space," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(22), pages 5711-5722.
    3. Michael W. L. Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Aysegul Sahin, 2010. "The Labor Market in the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 1-69.
    4. Roberto Bande & Marika Karanassou, 2009. "Labour market flexibility and regional unemployment rate dynamics: Spain 1980–1995," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(1), pages 181-207, March.
    5. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman & M. Rose Olfert & Ying Tan, 2015. "When Spatial Equilibrium Fails: Is Place-Based Policy Second Best?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(8), pages 1303-1325, August.
    6. Bayer Christian & Jüßen Falko, 2007. "Convergence in West German Regional Unemployment Rates," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 8(4), pages 510-535, December.
    7. Roberto Bande & Marika Karanassou, 2014. "Spanish Regional Unemployment Revisited: The Role of Capital Accumulation," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(11), pages 1863-1883, November.
    8. Timothy J. Bartik, 2014. "How Effects of Local Labor Demand Shocks Vary with Local Labor Market Conditions," Upjohn Working Papers 14-202, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    9. Greenaway-McGrevy, Ryan & Hood, Kyle K., 2016. "Worker migration or job creation? Persistent shocks and regional recoveries," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 1-16.
    10. Timothy J. Bartik, 2015. "How Effects of Local Labor Demand Shocks Vary with the Initial Local Unemployment Rate," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 529-557, December.
    11. Roberto Bande & Marika Karanassou, 2011. "The NRU and the Evolution of Regional Disparities in Spanish Unemployment," Documentos de trabajo - Analise Economica 0043, IDEGA - Instituto Universitario de Estudios e Desenvolvemento de Galicia.
    12. David McArthur & Inge Thorsen, 2011. "Determinants of internal migration in Norway," ERSA conference papers ersa10p532, European Regional Science Association.
    13. Betz, Michael R. & Partridge, Mark D. & Farren, Michael & Lobao, Linda, 2015. "Coal mining, economic development, and the natural resources curse," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 105-116.
    14. Timothy J. Bartik, 2012. "The Future of State and Local Economic Development Policy: What Research Is Needed," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 545-562, December.
    15. Timothy J. Bartik, 2021. "How Long-Run Effects of Local Demand Shocks on Employment Rates Vary with Local Labor Market Distress," Upjohn Working Papers 21-339, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    16. M. Rose Olfert & Mark D. Partridge, 2010. "Best Practices in Twenty‐First‐Century Rural Development and Policy," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 147-164, June.
    17. Partridge, Mark & Betz, Mike, 2012. "Country Road Take Me Home: Migration Patterns in the Appalachia America and Place-Based Policy," MPRA Paper 38293, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Sanna‐Mari Hynninen & Aki Kangasharju & Jaakko Pehkonen, 2009. "Matching Inefficiencies, Regional Disparities, and Unemployment," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 23(3), pages 481-506, September.
    19. James R. Hines Jr., 2010. "State Fiscal Policies and Transitory Income Fluctuations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(2 (Fall)), pages 313-350.
    20. David Philip Mcarthur & Inge Thorsen & Jan Ubøe, 2010. "A Micro‐Simulation Approach to Modelling Spatial Unemployment Disparities," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 374-402, September.
    21. Christian Bayer & Falko Jüßen, 2007. "Convergence in West German Regional Unemployment Rates," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(4), pages 510-535, November.
    22. Alessandra Faggian & M. Rose Olfert & Mark D. Partridge, 2011. "Inferring regional well-being from individual revealed preferences: the 'voting with your feet' approach," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 5(1), pages 163-180.

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