Africa: Is Aid an Answer?
Abstract
We address the poverty trap rationale for aid to Africa. We calibrate models that embody typical explanations for stagnation: coordination failures, ineffective mix of occupational choices and imperfect capital markets, and insufficient human capital accumulation coupled with high fertility. Calibration is ideally suited for this evaluation given the paucity of high-quality data, the high degree of model nonlinearity, and the need for conducting counterfactual policy experiments. We find that calibrations that yield multiple equilibria -- one being prosperity and the other stagnation -- are not particularly robust in capturing the African situation. This tempers optimism about foreign aid typically prescribed based on models of multiplicity. Moreover, conditional on multiplicity, the calibrated models indicate that the cost of policy interventions needed to trigger development in stagnant economies is small. The lack of reforms in Africa, despite the low estimated costs, suggests political hurdles to reform. It is not clear that foreign aid would be able to circumvent these. Taken together, we conclude that the case for foreign aid to Africa is weak.Download Info
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Bibliographic Info
Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics.
Volume (Year): 8 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (December)
Pages: 1-48
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Web page: http://www.degruyter.com
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Web: http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bejm
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Chris Papageorgiou & Fidel Pérez Sebastián & Shankha Chakraborty, 2010.
"Diseases, infection dynamics and development,"
Working Papers. Serie AD
2010-28, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- Chakraborty, Shankha & Papageorgiou, Chris & Pérez Sebastián, Fidel, 2010. "Diseases, infection dynamics, and development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(7), pages 859-872, October.
- Keith Blackburn & Gonzalo F. Forgues-Puccio, 2011.
"Foreign aid - a fillip for development or a fuel for corruption?,"
Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series
158, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
- Keith Blackburn & Gonzalo F. Forgues-Puccio, 2011. "Foreign Aid – A Fillip for Development or a Fuel for Corruption?," Development Research Working Paper Series 09/2011, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
- Keith Blackburn & Gonzalo F. Forgues-Puccio, 2011. " Foreign Aid - a Fillip for Development or a Fuel for Corruption?," CDMA Working Paper Series 1107, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
- Elisabeth Caucutt & Krishna B. Kumar, 2007. "Education For All: A Welfare-Improving Course for Africa?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(2), pages 294-326, April.
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