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Fiscal counter-cyclicality and productive investment: evidence from advanced economies

Author

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  • Furceri Davide

    (International Monetary Fund, Research Department, 700 19th Street NW, Washington, DC 20431, USA)

  • Jalles João Tovar

    (International Monetary Fund, Fiscal Affairs Department, 700 19th Street NW, Washington, DC 20431, USA, Phone: +1-202-623-8689)

Abstract

We use a difference-in-difference approach to 25 industries for 18 advanced economies over the period 1985–2012 to examine the effect of fiscal counter-cyclicality on productive investment: (i) Research and Development (R&D), and (ii) Information and Communications Technology (ICT). The results show that fiscal counter-cyclicality increases R&D expenditure and the share of ICT capital in industries that are more financially constrained. Moreover, the effect is larger during recessions – when financing constraints are more likely to be binding – than during economic expansions. Our statistical method mitigates concerns about omitted variable bias and reverse causality. In addition, the results are robust to different measures of fiscal counter-cyclicality and to the inclusion of several controls.

Suggested Citation

  • Furceri Davide & Jalles João Tovar, 2019. "Fiscal counter-cyclicality and productive investment: evidence from advanced economies," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-15, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:19:y:2019:i:1:p:15:n:8
    DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2017-0222
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Schlicht, Ekkehart, 2006. "VC - A Method For Estimating Time-Varying Coefficients in Linear Models," Discussion Papers in Economics 61656, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    2. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Shim, Myungkyu, 2022. "Inflation anchoring and growth: The role of credit constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    3. Lim, Jamus Jerome, 2020. "The political economy of fiscal procyclicality," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & Prakash Loungani, 2019. "Inflation Anchoring, Real Borrowing Costs, and Growth: Evidence from Sectoral Data," Working papers 2019rwp-143, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial dependence; fiscal counter-cyclicality; industry-level data; recessions vs. expansions; time varying coefficients;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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