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The Selection Effects (and Lack Thereof) in Patent Litigation: Evidence from Trials

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  • Marco Alan C.

    ()
    (Vassar College)

Abstract

Using a selection corrected probit, I estimate the probability that patents will be found valid and infringed at trial. I combine for the first time detailed adjudication data with detailed patent data. I find that the selection effects for validity adjudications and infringement adjudications differ systematically. Additionally, infringement estimates do not appear to suffer from a substantial selection bias. The results highlight the importance of correctly specifying the selection mechanism in policy analysis. In contrast with previous studies, I find that the win rate for patents that go to trial is biased towards 50%. The bias is much more substantial for validity decisions, where I find unconditional win rates of 75% for adjudicated patents and 85% for matched patents. Win rates conditional on adjudication are below 60%.

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File URL: http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bejeap.2004.4.issue-1/bejeap.2004.4.1.1226/bejeap.2004.4.1.1226.xml?format=INT
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy.

Volume (Year): 4 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (September)
Pages: 1-47

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejeap:v:topics.4:y:2004:i:1:n:21

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Cited by:
  1. Marco, Alan C., 2005. "The option value of patent litigation: Theory and evidence," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 323-351.
  2. Shawn P. Miller & Alexander Tabarrok, 2014. "Ill-Conceived, Even If Competently Administered: Software Patents, Litigation, and Innovation—A Comment on Graham and Vishnubhakat," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 11(1), pages 37-45, January.
  3. Mark A. Lemley & Carl Shapiro, 2005. "Probabilistic Patents," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 75-98, Spring.

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