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Predicting Recidivism of Juvenile Offenders

Author

Listed:
  • Kalist David E.
  • Lee Daniel Y.

    (Department of Economics, Shippensburg University, 1871 Old Main Drive, Shippensburg, PA 17257, USA)

  • Spurr Stephen J.

    (Department of Economics, Wayne State University, Detroit, MI, USA)

Abstract

This study uses a large data set to analyze and predict recidivism of juvenile offenders in Pennsylvania. We employ a split-population duration model to determine the effect of covariates on (1) the probability of failure, defined as a second referral to juvenile court, and (2) the time to failure, given that it occurs. A test of the predictive power of our estimates finds a false positive rate of 18.5% and a false negative rate of 20.7%, which compares favorably to the performance of other models in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Kalist David E. & Lee Daniel Y. & Spurr Stephen J., 2015. "Predicting Recidivism of Juvenile Offenders," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-23, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejeap:v:15:y:2015:i:1:p:23:n:9
    DOI: 10.1515/bejeap-2013-0188
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Berk & Lawrence Sherman & Geoffrey Barnes & Ellen Kurtz & Lindsay Ahlman, 2009. "Forecasting murder within a population of probationers and parolees: a high stakes application of statistical learning," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 172(1), pages 191-211, January.
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