An operational framework for the short-term forecasting of inflation
AbstractOver the last 15 years the Greek economy has made significant progress towards macroeconomic stability with a remarkable degree of inflation containment both in levels and volatility. These changes in inflation dynamics have implications for the short term forecasting of inflation. This paper proposes a framework to forecast Greek inflation (measured by both the National and the Harmonised indices, and the subcomponents of HICP) at an 18-month horizon by blending pure econometric model based forecasts with expert judgement. A rolling out of sample forecasting exercise as well as a battery of standard statistical tests suggests that the proposed underlying dynamic econometric model with the inclusion of variables reflecting economic activity, domestic and foreign costs, exchange rates etc. forecast encompasses simple benchmark specifications. This conclusion seems reasonably robust to alternative competing benchmarks.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Bank of Greece, Economic Research Department in its journal Economic Bulletin.
Volume (Year): (2007)
Issue (Month): 29 (October)
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Theodoros Mitrakos & Panos Tsaklogou & Ioannis Cholezas, 2010. "Determinants of the wage rates in Greece with an emphasis on the wages of tertiary education graduates," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, Economic Research Department, issue 34, pages 7-40, September.
- Heather Gibson & hiona Balfousia, 2010. "The impact of nominal and real uncertainty on macroeconomic aggregates in Greece," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, Economic Research Department, issue 34, pages 57-71, September.
- Costas N. Kanellopoulos, 2012. "Employment and worker flows during the financial crisis," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, Economic Research Department, issue 36, pages 31-41, April.
- Papaspyrou Theodoros, 2012. "EMU sustainability and the prospects of peripheral economies," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, Economic Research Department, issue 36, pages 7-29, April.
- Zacharias Bragoudakis & Stelios Panagiotou, 2010. "Determinants of the receipts from shipping services: the case of Greece," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, Economic Research Department, issue 34, pages 41-55, September.
- Faidon Kalfaoglou, 2012. "Bank capital adequacy framework," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, Economic Research Department, issue 36, pages 43-81, April.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christina Tsochatzi).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.