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Trends In Structural Changes And Convergence In Eu And In Adriatic-Balkans Region

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  • Lucian Liviu Albu

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting)

Abstract

Coming from lessons done by standard economic growth theories and empirical evidences, we are considering the convergence in the level of income per capita as a result of structural changes in economy. Based on some our old studies, we investigate the differences among countries in EU in terms of the share in total economy of main sectors. Then, based on the spatial (empirical) distribution of such shares in EU we are proposing a model to estimate a typology of the convergence process in the European area. Taking into account the existing differences among sectors in matter of productivity, there are two versions of the model: one considering the share of sectors in total employment and the other one in GDP. Moreover, we developed several modelling schemes that could be useful to improve the strategies oriented to achieve a real convergence in EU and further in Adriatic-Balkans region. In this way, we can obtain simulations from a country or group of countries (European Union, for example) on long term and quantifying the impact of structural changes on the convergence process. Indeed, the actual global crisis seems to influence negatively the convergence process in EU. As a rule, just new adhered countries were more affected by the actual crisis. Today all forecasts are suffering by uncertainty. Thus, further efforts must be allocated to evaluate the negative impact of actual crisis on the convergence process.

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File URL: http://eccsf.ulbsibiu.ro/RePEc/blg/journl/531.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences in its journal Studies in Business and Economics.

Volume (Year): 5 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Pages: 7-66

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Handle: RePEc:blg:journl:v:5:y:2010:i:3:p:7-66

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences Dumbravii Avenue, No 17, postal code 550324, Sibiu, Romania
Phone: 004 0269 210375
Fax: 004 0269 210375
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Web page: http://economice.ulbsibiu.ro/
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Related research

Keywords: structural changes; convergence; stages of economic development; spatial distribution; natural unemployment rate;

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