New Estimates of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate: The Case for the Chinese Renminbi
AbstractWe estimate the equilibrium exchange rate (EER) of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar from 1992 to 2008. In contrast to the recent empirical studies on the EER employing a large cross-country analysis, we focus on the supply side real factors in estimating the EER by extending the Yoshikawa (1990) model. To better reflect China's processing exports in the context of growing intra-regional trade in Asia, we incorporate in the empirical analysis the source country breakdown data on import prices and input coefficients of intermediate inputs by constructing an annual new International Input-Output (IIO) table for the period from 1992 to 2008. The results show that the EER of Chinese RMB appreciates sharply from 2005 to 2008, suggesting that the current RMB exchange rate has been substantially undervalued and should be revalued by 65 percent from the year 2000 level. Such sharp appreciation of the EER corresponds to the dramatic increase in China's current account surplus from the mid-2000s, especially against the United States, which is ascribed to the significant improvement of both labor and intermediate input coefficients in China.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal The World Economy.
Volume (Year): 35 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 (04)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0378-5920
Other versions of this item:
- SATO Kiyotaka & SHIMIZU Junko & Nagendra SHRESTHA & Zhaoyong ZHANG, 2010. "New Estimates of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate: The case for the Chinese renminbi," Discussion papers 10045, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Menzie D. Chinn & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009.
"A Faith-based Initiative: Does a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Really Facilitate Current Account Adjustment?,"
122009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Chinn, Menzie David & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2008. "A Faith-based Initiative: Does a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Really Facilitate Current Account Adjustment?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7076, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Menzie D. Chinn & Shang-Jin Wei, 2008. "A Faith-based Initiative: Does a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Really Facilitate Current Account Adjustment?," NBER Working Papers 14420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert Koopman & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2008. "How Much of Chinese Exports is Really Made In China? Assessing Domestic Value-Added When Processing Trade is Pervasive," NBER Working Papers 14109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2007.
"The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1918, CESifo Group Munich.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2007. "The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation," NBER Working Papers 12850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Yin-wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2007. "The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation," Working Papers 112007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Jaewoo Lee & Jonathan David Ostry & Alessandro Prati & Luca Antonio Ricci & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Exchange Rate Assessments," IMF Occasional Papers 261, International Monetary Fund.
- Yushi Yoshida & Shinji Takagi, 1999. "Exchange Rate Movements and Tradable Goods Prices in East Asia," IMF Working Papers 99/31, International Monetary Fund.
- Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
- Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China," Working Papers 2005-01, CEPII research center.
- Zhang, Zhibai & Chen, Langnan, 2013. "A New Assessment of the Chinese RMB Exchange Rate," MPRA Paper 49315, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Fukao, Kyoji & Yuan, Tangjun, 2012.
"China'S Economic Growth, Structural Change And The Lewisian Turning Point,"
Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics,
Hitotsubashi University, vol. 53(2), pages 147-176, December.
- Fukao, Kyoji & Yuan, Tang jun, 2012. "China's Economic Growth, Structural Change and the Lewisian Turning Point," CEI Working Paper Series 2012-04, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Kyoji Fukao & Tangjun Yuan, 2012. "China's Economic Growth, Structural Change and the Lewisian Turning Point," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd12-267, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- FUKAO Kyoji & Tangjun YUAN, 2012. "China's Economic Growth, Structural Change and the Lewisian Turning Point," Discussion papers 12056, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
- Wang, Gang-Jin & Xie, Chi, 2013. "Cross-correlations between Renminbi and four major currencies in the Renminbi currency basket," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(6), pages 1418-1428.
- Zhibai, Zhang, 2012. "A Simple Model and Its Application in the Valuation of Five Asian Real Exchange Rates," MPRA Paper 40953, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.