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The Economic Impacts of Turkish Accession to the European Union

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  • George Philippidis
  • Orhan Karaca

Abstract

Half a century has passed and Turkey is no further toward achieving EU membership. Under the mandate of the Barcelona Declaration, EU–Turkish industrial tariffs will be abolished, whilst agro‐food protectionism remains largely intact. Consequently, the direct impacts from a hypothetical EU accession scenario will be concentrated in agro‐food sectors, whilst their share of economic output in Turkey implies ‘secondary’ macro impacts. To this end, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework is employed to quantitatively reassess full Turkish accession. Unlike previous CGE studies, agriculture, fishing and food sectors are disaggregated, whilst significant advancements to the ‘standard’ model code are incorporated to capture the vagaries of agricultural factor, input and product markets. In addition, a realistic ‘baseline’ scenario is constructed including ‘up to date’ trade and domestic agricultural policy reforms prior to Turkish entry to the EU. The results show that trade‐led gains in Turkey are moderated due to tariff liberalisation prior to EU entry, whilst Turkey receives significant budgetary transfers from the CAP budget, which are ‘mirrored’ as EU‐27 costs. With additional migration effects, Turkish (EU‐27) production possibilities fall (rise), whilst real income per capita rises (falls).

Suggested Citation

  • George Philippidis & Orhan Karaca, 2009. "The Economic Impacts of Turkish Accession to the European Union," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(12), pages 1706-1729, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:32:y:2009:i:12:p:1706-1729
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2009.01207.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Selahattin Bekmez, 2002. "Sectoral Impacts of Turkish Accession to the European Union: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 57-84, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Boulanger, Pierre & Philippidis, George, 2015. "The EU budget battle: Assessing the trade and welfare impacts of CAP budgetary reform," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 119-130.
    2. Boulanger, Pierre & Ferrari, Emanuele & Michalek, Jerzy & Philippidis, George & Vinyes, Cristina, 2013. "Modelling the Effects of Croatia's Accession to the EU: Trade and Agricultural Policies," 135th Seminar, August 28-30, 2013, Belgrade, Serbia 160373, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Bektasoglu, Beyhan & Befus, Tanja & Brockmeier, Martina, 2012. "Moving towards EU or MENA? Comparing Alternative Turkish Foreign Policies Utilizing the GTAP framework," Conference papers 332279, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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