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Trade Expansion of China and India: Threat or Opportunity?

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  • Mahvash Saeed Qureshi
  • Guanghua Wan

Abstract

By exploring the export performances and specialisation patterns of China and India, we assess their trade competitiveness and complementarity vis-à-vis each other as well as with the rest of the world. Our analysis indicates that (a) India faces tough competition from China in the third markets especially in clothing, textiles and leather products; (b) there is a moderate potential for expanding trade between the two countries; (c) China poses a challenge for the East Asian economies, the US, and most European countries especially in medium-technology industries; (d) India appears to be a competitor mainly for its neighbouring South Asian countries; (e) complementarity exists between the imports of China and India, and the exports of the US, some European states and East Asian countries, especially Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, implying opportunities for trade expansion; and finally (f) the export structure of China is changing with the exports of skill-intensive and high-technology products increasing and those of labour-intensive products decreasing gradually. This suggests that challenges created by China in traditional labour-intensive products might reduce in the long run. Copyright 2008 United Nations University. Journal compilation 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal World Economy.

Volume (Year): 31 (2008)
Issue (Month): 10 (October)
Pages: 1327-1350

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Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:31:y:2008:i:10:p:1327-1350

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  1. Shafaeddin, S. M., 2004. "Is China's accession to WTO threatening exports of developing countries?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 109-144, January.
  2. John Gilbert & Thomas Wahl, 2002. "Applied General Equilibrium Assessments of Trade Libereralisation in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 697-731, 05.
  3. Lall, Sanjaya & Albaladejo, Manuel, 2004. "China's Competitive Performance: A Threat to East Asian Manufactured Exports?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1441-1466, September.
  4. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
  5. Elena Ianchovichina & Will Martin, 2004. "Impacts of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 18(1), pages 3-27.
  6. Lucia Tajoli & Lucia De Benedictis, 2006. "Economic Integration and Similarity in Trade Structures," Working Papers 2006.54, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  7. Sanjaya Lall & John Weiss & Hiroshi Oikawa, 2005. "China's Competitive Threat to Latin America: An Analysis for 1990-2002," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 163-194.
  8. Barry Eichengreen & Yeongseop Rhee & Hui Tong, 2004. "The Impact of China on the Exports of Other Asian Countries," NBER Working Papers 10768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Harrison, Ann, 1996. "Openness and growth: A time-series, cross-country analysis for developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 419-447, March.
  10. Jorge Blázquez-Lidoy & Javier Rodríguez & Javier Santiso, 2006. "Angel or Devil? China's Trade Impact on Latin American Emerging Markets," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 252, OECD Publishing.
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Cited by:
  1. Giorgia Giovannetti & Marco Sanfilippo, 2009. "Do Chinese Exports Crowd-out African Goods? An Econometric Analysis by Country and Sector," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(4), pages 506-530, September.
  2. Jing Wang & Dana Medianu & John Whalley, 2011. "The Contribution of China, India and Brazil to Narrowing North-South Differences in GDP/capita, World Trade Shares, and Market Capitalization," NBER Working Papers 17681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Pierluigi Montalbano & Silvia Nenci, 2011. "Are the Emerging Economies a Threat to the Italian Competitiveness?," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 4, December.
  4. Robert Kappel, 2010. "Verschiebung der globalen Machtverhältnisse durch den Aufstieg von Regionalen Führungsmächten: China, Indien, Brasilien und Südafrika," GIGA Working Paper Series 146, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
  5. Robert Kappel, 2010. "On the Economics of Regional Powers: Comparing China, India, Brazil, and South Africa," GIGA Working Paper Series 145, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
  6. Beretta, Silvio & Targetti Lenti, Renata, 2011. "“India in the Outsourcing/Offshoring Process: A Western Perspective” - L’India nel processo di outsourcing/offshoring: un punto di vista occidentale," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 64(3), pages 269-296.
  7. Bera, Soumitra Kumar, 2008. "International Trade Modeling Indices and Measurement Issues," MPRA Paper 27890, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Giorgia Giovannetti, Marco Sanfilippo and Margherita Velucchi, 2012. "The impact of China on manufacturing exports of Italy and Germany," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/26, European University Institute.
  9. Giorgia Giovannetti & Marco Sanfilippo & Margherita Velucchi, 2011. "The “China effect” on EU Exports to OECD markets – A focus on Italy," Working Papers - Economics wp2011_17.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.

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