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Predicting the Comparative Strengths of National Football Teams

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  • Garry A. Gelade
  • Paul Dobson

Abstract

Objectives. The aim of this study was to identify the chief social and economic factors predicting the strength of national Association Football (soccer) teams. Methods. A theoretical model was developed to establish an appropriate functional form for the relationship between team strength and the number of individuals available for selection. OLS regression was used to predict the performance ratings of 201 national teams. Results. The results showed that the strength of a nation's football team depends on the number of men who regularly play football, the length of its football tradition, the wealth of its population, the percentage of expatriate players in the national team, and climatic conditions. These factors explain 70 percent of the variance in international team ratings. Conclusions. Many of the factors that determine team strength are structural and cannot be manipulated by policymakers. Nations could, however, strengthen their teams by encouraging wider participation in the sport. Poorer nations could develop stronger teams by encouraging their best players to play professional club football abroad, although this might have negative consequences for domestic football.

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  • Garry A. Gelade & Paul Dobson, 2007. "Predicting the Comparative Strengths of National Football Teams," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 88(1), pages 244-258, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:88:y:2007:i:1:p:244-258
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6237.2007.00456.x
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    3. Roberto Gásquez & Vicente Royuela, 2016. "The Determinants of International Football Success: A Panel Data Analysis of the Elo Rating," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 97(2), pages 125-141, June.
    4. Norbäck, Pehr-Johan & Olsson, Martin & Persson, Lars, 2016. "Talent Development and Labour Market Integration: The Case of EU Football," Working Paper Series 1126, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 14 Mar 2018.
    5. Frank Daumann & Florian Follert & Daniel Hamacher & Lasse Plöhn, 2023. "The early bird catches the worm: The impact of first‐mover advantage on long‐term elite team sport success," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 1465-1475, April.
    6. David Pastoriza & Jean-François Plante & Nadjib Lakhlef, 2021. "Are Foreigners at Disadvantage in a Global Labor Market?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(6), pages 615-638, August.
    7. Kin-Man Wan & Ka-U Ng & Thung-Hong Lin, 2020. "The Political Economy of Football: Democracy, Income Inequality, and Men’s National Football Performance," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 981-1013, October.
    8. Berlinschi, Ruxanda & Schokkaert, Jeroen & Swinnen, Johan, 2013. "When drains and gains coincide: Migration and international football performance," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 1-14.
    9. Pehr‐Johan Norbäck & Martin Olsson & Lars Persson, 2021. "Talent development and labour market integration in European football," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 367-408, February.
    10. Vicente Royuela & Roberto Gásquez, 2019. "On the Influence of Foreign Players on the Success of Football Clubs," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(5), pages 718-741, June.
    11. Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2013. "Globalized Market for Talents and Inequality: What Can Be Learnt from European Football?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1034, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

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