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Testing for Asymmetries in UK Macroeconomic Time Series

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Author Info
Speight, A E H
McMillan, D G
Abstract

This paper examines the asymmetric properties of a broad range of quarterly postwar U.K. macroeconomic time series using recently developed test statistics for contractionary 'deepness' and 'steepness' relative to trend. The authors also examine the robustness of these test statistics to two alternative methods of detrending, namely Hodrick-Prescott filtering and structural time-series modeling. They find strong corroborative evidence of asymmetric steepness relative to trend in durable consumption, total investment, investment in plant and machinery, exports, and unemployment. The authors find weaker evidence of asymmetric deepness in savings, exports, labor hours, consumption, and unemployment. Copyright 1998 by Scottish Economic Society.

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Article provided by Scottish Economic Society in its journal Scottish Journal of Political Economy.

Volume (Year): 45 (1998)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 158-70
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Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:45:y:1998:i:2:p:158-70

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  1. Richard Harris & Brian Silverstone, 2000. "Asymmetric Adjustment of Unemployment and Output in New Zealand: Rediscovering Okun's Law," Working Papers in Economics 00/02, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2004. "Consumption Asymmetry and the Stock Market: Empirical Evidence," Working papers 2004-43, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Steven Cook, 2000. "An International Perspective on Asymmetries in Consumers' Expenditure," Empirica, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 283-293, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2003. "On detrending and cyclical asymmetry," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(3), pages 271-289. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2004. "Consumption Asymmetry and the Stock Market: Further Evidence," Working papers 2004-19, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Clements, M.P. & Krolzig, H-M., 1999. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisationand Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregression," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 522, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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