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Political Stock Markets and Unreliable Polls

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  • Bohm, Peter
  • Sonnegard, Joakim
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    Abstract

    A political stock market (PSM) clearly beat the polls in predicting the outcome of a Swedish referendum on whether or not Sweden should join the European Union. In fact, polls were unable to make such predictions since the number of undecided respondents always far exceeded the observed YES/NO margin. However, an obstacle to PSMs serving as a superior forecasting instrument is that they can be sensitive to price distortions--by interest groups that may wish to effectuate, and pay for, such distortions--or forecast competitions tied to PSM trade gains, the latter of which was tested here. Copyright 1999 by The editors of the Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

    Volume (Year): 101 (1999)
    Issue (Month): 2 (June)
    Pages: 205-22

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:101:y:1999:i:2:p:205-22

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    Cited by:
    1. Berlemann, Michael & Schmidt, Carsten, 2001. "Predictive accuracy of political stock markets: Empirical evidence from an European perspective," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 05/01, Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    2. Mikuláš Gangur & Miroslav Plevný, 2014. "Tools for Consumer Rights Protection in the Prediction of Electronic Virtual Market and Technological Changes," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 36(16), pages 578, May.
    3. Jan Hansen & Carsten Schmidt & Martin Strobel, 2004. "Manipulation in political stock markets - preconditions and evidence," Natural Field Experiments 00265, The Field Experiments Website.
    4. Subhani, Muhammad Imtiaz & Hasan, Dr. Syed Akif & Osman, Ms. Amber, 2012. "Is Sudden News an Origin of More Systematic Risk in Common Stocks?," MPRA Paper 45139, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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