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Metropolitan House Prices In South Africa: Do They Converge?

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  • Philippe Burger
  • Lizelle janse Van rensburg
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    Abstract

    The question this paper investigates is whether or not different metropolitan areas each constitute a separate housing market or whether or not there is a single South African housing market. Theory on the Law of One Price suggests that if products or geographic areas belong in the same market, their absolute prices must converge, so that their relative prices are stationary. By using cross-sectional time series data of five metropolitan areas, the paper tests for the Law of One Price by applying the Im, Pesaran and Shin panel unit root test. The paper finds strong evidence of convergence in large middle-segment house prices and weaker support for convergence in medium middle-segment house prices. In addition, the paper finds no evidence for convergence in small middle-segment house prices. This suggests the existence of a national market for large and possibly middle-segment houses in metropolitan areas, but separate metropolitan markets for small middle-segment houses. In addition, the paper estimates the speed of convergence and finds that large middle-segment house prices converge within two to seven quarters, while the speed of convergence for medium middle-segment house prices in three of the five areas is five to eight quarters. Copyright (c) 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation (c) 2008 Economic Society of South Africa.

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    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1813-6982.2008.00190.x
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Economic Society of South Africa in its journal South African Journal of Economics.

    Volume (Year): 76 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 2 (06)
    Pages: 291-297

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:76:y:2008:i:2:p:291-297

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    Cited by:
    1. Nicholas Apergis & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Convergence in Provincial-Level South African House Prices: Evidence from the Club Convergence and Clustering Procedure," Working Papers 201322, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Nicholas Apergis & James Payne, 2012. "Convergence in U.S. house prices by state: evidence from the club convergence and clustering procedure," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 103-111, July.
    3. Gupta, Rangan & Jurgilas, Marius & Kabundi, Alain, 2010. "The effect of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa: A factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 315-323, January.
    4. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2011. "Investigating regional house price convergence in the United States: Evidence from a pair-wise approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2369-2376.
    5. Tsangyao Chang & Tsung-pao Wu & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Are House Prices in South Africa Really Non-Stationary? Evidence from SPSM-Based Panel KSS Test with a Fourier Function," Working Papers 201324, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2009. "Could we have predicted the recent downturn in the South African Housing Market?," Working Papers 149, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    7. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Payne, James E., 2012. "Comovements among U.S. state housing prices: Evidence from fractional cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 936-942.
    8. Goodness C. Aye & Samrat Goswami & Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Metropolitan House Prices In India: Do They Converge?," Working Papers 201220, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    9. Nicholas Apergis & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "The Long-Run Relationship between Consumption, House Prices and Stock Prices in South Africa: Evidence from Provincial-Level Data," Working Papers 201326, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    10. Christophe Andre & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Comovement in Euro Area Housing Prices: A Fractional Cointegration Approach," Working Papers 201359, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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