FORECASTING THE SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY WITH GIBBS SAMPLED BVECMs
AbstractThe paper uses the Gibbs sampling technique to estimate a heteroscedastic Bayesian Vector Error Correction Model (BVECM) of the South African economy for the period 1970:1-2000:4, and then forecasts GDP, consumption, investment, short and long term interest rates, and the CPI over the period of 2001:1 to 2005:4. We find that a tight prior produces relatively more accurate forecasts than a loose one. The out-of-sample-forecast accuracy resulting from the Gibbs sampled BVECM is compared with those generated from a Classical VECM and a homoscedastic BVECM. The homoscedastic BVECM is found to produce the most accurate out of sample forecasts. Copyright (c) 2007 The Author. Journal compilation (c) 2007 Economic Society of South Africa.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Economic Society of South Africa in its journal South African Journal of Economics.
Volume (Year): 75 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0038-2280
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Other versions of this item:
- Rangan Gupta, 2007. "Forecasting the South African Economy with Gibbs Sampled BVECMs," Working Papers 200701, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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- Annari de Waal & Renee van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Do we need a global VAR model to forecast inflation and output in South Africa?," Working Papers 201346, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Mirriam Chitalu Chama-Chiliba & Rangan Gupta & Nonophile Nkambule & Naomi Tlotlego, 2011. "Forecasting Key Macroeconomic Variables of the South African Economy Using Bayesian Variable Selection," Working Papers 201132, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
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