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Can Leading Business Cycle Indicators Predict The Direction Of The South African Commercial Share Price Index?

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Author Info
ELNA MOOLMAN
JOHANNES JORDAAN
Abstract

Leading indicators are a popular way to predict turning points in the business cycle. However, since the lead time of these indicators differ, those with a longer lead could potentially also be used to predict turning points in other leading indicators. This paper empirically explores the viability of using leading indicators to predict the turning points of an index of commercial shares on the JSE Securities Exchange. Although share prices are leading the business cycle, other leading indicators that lead the business cycle by a longer period should lead share prices and, therefore, could potentially be useful in predicting the direction of share price movements. Copyright 2005 Economic Society of South Africa.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1813-6982.2005.00005.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Economic Society of South Africa in its journal South African Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 73 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (03)
Pages: 68-78
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Handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:73:y:2005:i:1:p:68-78

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  1. Willem Boshoff, 2005. "The properties of cycles in South African financial variables and their relation to the business cycle," Working Papers 02/2005, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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