Testing For Pro‐Poorness Of Growth, With An Application To Mexico

This paper proposes techniques to test for whether growth has been pro‐poor. We first review different definitions of pro‐poorness and argue for the use of methods that can generate results that are robust over classes of pro‐poor measures and ranges of poverty lines. We then provide statistical procedures that rely on the use of sample data to infer whether growth has been pro‐poor in a population. We apply these procedures to Mexican household surveys for 1992, 1998, and 2004. We find strong normative and statistical evidence that Mexican growth has been absolutely anti‐poor between 1992 and 1998, absolutely pro‐poor between 1998 and 2004 and between 1992 and 2004, and relatively pro‐poor between 1992 and 2004 and between 1998 and 2004. The relative assessment of the period between 1992 and 1998 is statistically too weak to lead to a robust evaluation of that period.