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How Certain Are Dutch Households about Future Income? An Empirical Analysis

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Author Info
Das, Marcel
Donkers, Bas

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Abstract

The precautionary saving literature shows that income uncertainty increases savings and wealth. To estimate the magnitude of this effect, we need a measure of income uncertainty. This paper empirically analyzes subjective income uncertainty in The Netherlands. Data come from a large Dutch household survey. We measure income uncertainty by asking questions on expected household income in the next twelve months. First, we describe the data and investigate the relationship between the measure of income uncertainty and a number of household characteristics. Controlling for information on expected income changes, we find strong relationships between labor-market characteristics and the subjective income uncertainty as reported by the heads of the households. Second, we compare income uncertainty in The Netherlands with income uncertainty in the U.S. and Italy. It becomes evident that perceived income uncertainty is smaller in The Netherlands than it is in the U.S. Copyright 1999 by The International Association for Research in Income and Wealth.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Review of Income & Wealth.

Volume (Year): 45 (1999)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 325-38
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Handle: RePEc:bla:revinw:v:45:y:1999:i:3:p:325-38

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," NBER Working Papers 4937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1994. "Income Risk, Borrowing Constraints and Portfolio Choice," CEPR Discussion Papers 888, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1992. "Earnings uncertainty and precautionary saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 307-337, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Optimal Consumption with Stochastic Income: Deviations from Certainty Equivalence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 275-98, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Kimball, Miles S, 1993. "Standard Risk Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(3), pages 589-611, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Christopher D. Carroll, 1992. "The Buffer-Stock Theory of Saving: Some Macroeconomic Evidence," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1992-2), pages 61-156. [Downloadable!]
  7. Wolfgang Hardle & Oliver Linton, 1994. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1069, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Carroll, Christopher D, 1994. "How Does Future Income Affect Current Consumption?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 111-47, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Kimball, Miles S, 1990. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 53-73, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Das, Marcel & van Soest, Arthur, 1997. "Expected and realized income changes: Evidence from the Dutch socio-economic panel," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 137-154, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Jonathan S. Skinner, 1987. "Risky Income, Life Cycle Consumption, and Precautionary Savings," NBER Working Papers 2336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Das, M. & Soest, A. van, 1996. "A panel data model for subjective information on household income growth," Discussion Paper 75, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  13. James Banks & Richard Blundell & Agar Brugiavini, 1995. "Income uncertainty and consumption growth in the UK," IFS Working Papers W95/13, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alessie, R. & Hochguertel, S. & Soest, A. van, 2000. "Household portfolios in the Netherlands," Discussion Paper 55, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Giamboni Luigi, 2004. "Do husbands’ and wives’ predictions irrationally diverge?," Departmental Working Papers 203, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
  3. Pesaran, M.H. & Weale, M., 2005. "Survey Expectations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0536, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Luca Casolaro & Leonardo Gambacorta & Luigi Guiso, 2005. "Regulation, formal and informal enforcement and the development of the household loan market. Lessons from Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 560, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jonathan Crook & Stefan Hochguertel, 2007. "US and European Household Debt and Credit Constraints," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-087/3, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  6. Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri, 1999. "The Dynamics of Household Wealth Accumulation in Italy," CSEF Working Papers 27, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 01 Dec 2000. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Giamboni Luigi & Waldmann Robert, 2004. "A behavioral model of consumption," Departmental Working Papers 202, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
  8. Charles F. Manski & John D. Straub, 1999. "Worker Perceptions of Job Insecurity in the Mid-1990s: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations," NBER Working Papers 6908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Boero,Gianna & Smith,Jeremy & Wallis,Kenneth F, 2006. "Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction : the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 811, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Annamaria Lusardi, 2002. "Saving Viewed from a Cross-National Perspective," MEA discussion paper series 02024, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  11. Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri, 1998. "What Determines Earnings and Employment Risk?," CSEF Working Papers 08, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Wilbert van der Klaauw & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Simon Potter & Michael Bryan, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  13. Das, M. & Dominitz, J. & Soest, A. van, 1997. "Comparing predictions and outcomes : theory and application to income changes," Discussion Paper 45, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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