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A Truth Serum for Non-Bayesians: Correcting Proper Scoring Rules for Risk Attitudes-super-

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Author Info
THEO OFFERMAN
JOEP SONNEMANS
GIJS VAN DE KUILEN
PETER P. WAKKER
Abstract

Proper scoring rules provide convenient and highly efficient tools for incentive-compatible elicitations of subjective beliefs. As traditionally used, however, they are valid only under expected value maximization. This paper shows how they can be generalized to modern ("non-expected utility") theories of risk and ambiguity, yielding mutual benefits: users of scoring rules can benefit from the empirical realism of non-expected utility, and analysts of ambiguity attitudes can benefit from efficient measurements using proper scoring rules. An experiment demonstrates the feasibility of our generalization. Copyright Copyright © 2009 The Review of Economic Studies Limited.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2009.00557.x
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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Review of Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 76 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 1461-1489
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Handle: RePEc:bla:restud:v:76:y:2009:i:4:p:1461-1489

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