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Measuring Strategic Uncertainty in Coordination Games

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Author Info
FRANK HEINEMANN
ROSEMARIE NAGEL
PETER OCKENFELS

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Abstract

This paper proposes a method to measure strategic uncertainty by eliciting certainty equivalents analogous to measuring risk attitudes in lotteries. We apply this method by conducting experiments on a class of one-shot coordination games with strategic complementarities and choices between simple lotteries and sure payoff alternatives, both framed in a similar way. Despite the multiplicity of equilibria in the coordination games, aggregate behaviour is fairly predictable. The pure or mixed Nash equilibria cannot describe subjects' behaviour. We present two global games with private information about monetary payoffs and about risk aversion. While previous literature treats the parameters of a global game as given, we estimate them and show that both models describe observed behaviour well. The global-game selection for vanishing noise of private signals offers a good recommendation for actual players, given the observed distribution of actions. We also deduce subjective beliefs and compare them with objective probabilities. Copyright © 2009 The Review of Economic Studies Limited.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2008.00512.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Review of Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 76 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (01)
Pages: 181-221
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Handle: RePEc:bla:restud:v:76:y:2009:i:1:p:181-221

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. John C. Harsanyi & Reinhard Selten, 1988. "A General Theory of Equilibrium Selection in Games," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262582384.
  2. Goeree, Jacob K. & Holt, Charles A. & Palfrey, Thomas R., 2003. "Risk averse behavior in generalized matching pennies games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 97-113, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Schmidt, David & Shupp, Robert & Walker, James M. & Ostrom, Elinor, 2003. "Playing safe in coordination games:: the roles of risk dominance, payoff dominance, and history of play," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 281-299, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Andreas Lange & John A. List & Michael K. Price, 2004. "Auctions with Resale When Private Values Are Uncertain: Theory and Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 10639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Christian Hellwig, 2002. "Imperfect Common Knowledge of Preferences in Global Coordination Games (October 2002)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 211, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Berninghaus, Siegfried K. & Ehrhart, Karl-Martin, 2001. "Coordination and information: recent experimental evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 345-351, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. McKelvey Richard D. & Palfrey Thomas R., 1995. "Quantal Response Equilibria for Normal Form Games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 6-38, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Rosemarie Nagel & Antonio Cabrales & Roc Armenter, 2002. "Equilibrium Selection through Incomplete Information in Coordination Games: An Experimental Study," Economics Working Papers 601, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Carlsson, Hans & van Damme, Eric, 1993. "Global Games and Equilibrium Selection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 989-1018, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. R. J. Aumann & J. H. Dreze, 2004. "Assessing Strategic Risk," Discussion Paper Series dp361, Center for Rationality and Interactive Decision Theory, Hebrew University, Jerusalem. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2002. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1644-1655, December. [Downloadable!]
  13. Bohnet, Iris & Zeckhauser, Richard, 2004. "Trust, risk and betrayal," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 467-484, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2000. "Global Games: Theory and Applications," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1275, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Yaw Nyarko & Andrew Schotter, 2002. "An Experimental Study of Belief Learning Using Elicited Beliefs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(3), pages 971-1005, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Menno Middeldorp & Stephanie Rosenkranz, 2008. "Information acquisition in an experimental asset market," Working Papers 08-25, Utrecht School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Martin Beckenkamp, 2008. "Playing strategically against nature? – Decisions viewed from a game-theoretic frame," Working Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2008_34, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods. [Downloadable!]
  3. Giovanna Devetag & Andreas Ortmann, 2006. "When and Why? A Critical Survey on Coordination Failure in the Laboratory," CEEL Working Papers 0605, Computable and Experimental Economics Laboratory, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Antonio Cabrales & Rosemarie Nagel & Roc Armenter, 2007. "Equilibrium selection through incomplete information in coordination games: an experimental study," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 221-234, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Boone, J. & Müller, W. & Suetens, S., 2009. "Naked Exclusion: Towards a Behavioral Approach to Exclusive Dealing," Discussion Paper 2009-30, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Antonio Cabrales & Raffaele Miniaci & Marco Piovesan & Giovanni Ponti, 2009. "Social Preferences and Strategic Uncertainty: An Experiment on Markets and Contracts," Working Papers 2009-09, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Rosenkranz, Stephanie & Weitzel, Utz, 2008. "Network Structure and Strategic Investments: An Experimental Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 6855, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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