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Investment Cycles and Sovereign Debt Overhang

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Author Info
MARK AGUIAR
MANUEL AMADOR
GITA GOPINATH

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Abstract

We characterize optimal taxation of foreign capital and optimal sovereign debt policy in a small open economy where the government cannot commit to policy, seeks to insure a risk-averse domestic constituency, and is more impatient than the market. Optimal policy generates long-run cycles in both sovereign debt and foreign direct investment in an environment in which the first best capital stock is a constant. The expected tax on capital endogenously varies with the state of the economy, and investment is distorted by more in recessions than in booms, amplifying the effect of shocks. The government's lack of commitment induces a negative correlation between investment and the stock of government debt, a "debt overhang" effect. Debt relief is never Pareto improving and cannot affect the long-run level of investment. Furthermore, restricting the government to a balanced budget can eliminate the cyclical distortion of investment. Copyright © 2009 The Review of Economic Studies Limited.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2008.00523.x
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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Review of Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 76 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (01)
Pages: 1-31
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Handle: RePEc:bla:restud:v:76:y:2009:i:1:p:1-31

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  5. Christopher Phelan & Ennio Stacchetti, 2001. "Sequential Equilibria in a Ramsey Tax Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1491-1518, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Krugman, Paul, 1988. "Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 253-268, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Thomas, Jonathan & Worrall, Tim, 1994. "Foreign Direct Investment and the Risk of Expropriation," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(1), pages 81-108, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Serkan Arslanalp & Peter Blair Henry, 2006. "Debt Relief," NBER Working Papers 12187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • Arslanalp, Serkan & Henry, Peter B., 2006. "Debt Relief," Research Papers 1931, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
  13. Dirk Krueger & Fabrizio Perri, 2005. "Private and Public Risk Sharing in Economies with Limited Enforcement," 2005 Meeting Papers 293, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  15. Zhu, Xiaodong, 1992. "Optimal fiscal policy in a stochastic growth model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 250-289, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Benhabib, Jess & Rustichini, Aldo, 1997. "Optimal Taxes without Commitment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 231-259, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Judd, Kenneth L., 1985. "Redistributive taxation in a simple perfect foresight model," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 59-83, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Daron Acemoglu & Michael Golosov & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2008. "Political Economy of Ramsey Taxation," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000002192, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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