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The Role of Portfolio Constraints in the International Propagation of Shocks

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Author Info
ANNA PAVLOVA
ROBERTO RIGOBON

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Abstract

We study the comovement among stock prices and exchange rates in a three-good, three-country, Centre-Periphery, dynamic equilibrium model in which the Centre's agents face portfolio constraints. We characterize equilibrium in closed form for a broad class of portfolio constraints, solving for stock prices, terms of trade, and portfolio holdings. We show that portfolio constraints generate wealth transfers between the Periphery countries and the Centre, which increase the comovement of the stock prices across the Periphery. We associate this excess comovement caused by portfolio constraints with the phenomenon known as contagion. The model generates predictions consistent with other important empirical results such as amplification and flight-to-quality effects. Copyright © 2008 The Review of Economic Studies Limited.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2008.00509.x
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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Review of Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 75 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 1215-1256
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Handle: RePEc:bla:restud:v:75:y:2008:i:4:p:1215-1256

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2008. "A Model of Capital and Crises," NBER Working Papers 14366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Mardi Dungey & George Milunovich & Susan Thorp, 2008. "Unobservable Shocks as Carriers of Contagion: A Dynamic Analysis Using Identified Structural GARCH," NCER Working Paper Series 22, National Centre for Econometric Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Chris Edmond & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2009. "Aggregate Implications of Micro Asset Market Segmentation," NBER Working Papers 15254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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