This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Make Trade Not War?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
PHILIPPE MARTIN
THIERRY MAYER
MATHIAS THOENIG

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper analyses theoretically and empirically the relationship between military conflicts and trade. We show that the conventional wisdom that trade promotes peace is only partially true even in a model where trade is economically beneficial, military conflicts reduce trade, and leaders are rational. When war can occur because of the presence of asymmetric information, the probability of escalation is lower for countries that trade more bilaterally because of the opportunity cost associated with the loss of trade gains. However, countries more open to global trade have a higher probability of war because multilateral trade openness decreases bilateral dependence to any given country and the cost of a bilateral conflict. We test our predictions on a large data set of military conflicts on the 1950-2000 period. Using different strategies to solve the endogeneity issues, including instrumental variables, we find robust evidence for the contrasting effects of bilateral and multilateral trade openness. For proximate countries, we find that trade has had a surprisingly large effect on their probability of military conflict. Copyright © 2008 The Review of Economic Studies Limited.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2008.00492.x
File Format: text/html
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Review of Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 75 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (07)
Pages: 865-900
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:bla:restud:v:75:y:2008:i:3:p:865-900

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0034-6527

Order Information:
Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0034-6527

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Rauch, James E., 1999. "Networks versus markets in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 7-35, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Gregory D. Hess & Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "War and Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(4), pages 776-810, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Herschel I. Grossman, 2003. "Choosing Between Peace and War," NBER Working Papers 10180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," NBER Working Papers 10480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Baldwin, R E & Murray, Tracy, 1977. "MFN Tariff Reductions and Developing Country Trade Benefits under the GSP," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 87(345), pages 30-46, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Arvind Subramanian & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly But Unevenly," NBER Working Papers 10024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Rose, Andrew K, 2003. "Which International Institutions Promote International Trade?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3764, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Andrew K. Rose, 2004. "Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 98-114, March. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Cremer, Jacques & McLean, Richard P, 1988. "Full Extraction of the Surplus in Bayesian and Dominant Strategy Auctions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1247-57, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Gilat Levy & Ronny Razin, 2004. "It Takes Two: An Explanation for the Democratic Peace," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(1), pages 1-29, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Hess, Gregory D & Orphanides, Athanasios, 1995. "War Politics: An Economic, Rational-Voter Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(4), pages 828-46, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Izquierdo, Alejandro & Morisset, Jacques & Olarreaga, Marcelo, 2003. "Information Diffusion in International Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 3872, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Myerson, Roger B. & Satterthwaite, Mark A., 1983. "Efficient mechanisms for bilateral trading," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 265-281, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Alesina, Alberto & Spolaore, Enrico, 2005. "War, peace, and the size of countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(7), pages 1333-1354, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Alesina, Alberto & Spolaore, Enrico, 1997. "On the Number and Size of Nations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1027-56, November.
    Other versions:
  17. Olivier Compte & Philippe Jehiel, 2004. "Inefficiencies in Bargaining: Departing from Akerlof and Myerson-Satterthwaite," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000744, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  18. Ai, Chunrong & Norton, Edward C., 2003. "Interaction terms in logit and probit models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-129, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Fearon, James D., 1995. "Rationalist explanations for war," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(03), pages 379-414, June. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. repec:rus:hseeco:123558 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Garfinkel, Michelle R, 1994. "Domestic Politics and International Conflict," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1294-1309, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. repec:rus:hseeco:123708 is not listed on IDEAS
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya, 2008. "The triumph of globalization at the expense of minority discriminations? – An empirical investigation on 76 countries, 1970 – 2005," MPRA Paper 11494, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Leonardo Raffo López, 2007. "El modelo de Skaperdas y Syropoulos," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 9(17), pages 153-181, July-Dece. [Downloadable!]
  3. Mirza, Daniel & Verdier, Thierry, 2007. "Are Lives a Substitute for Livelihoods? Terrorism, Security and US Bilateral Imports," CEPR Discussion Papers 6173, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Taylor, Alan & Glick, Reuven, 2005. "Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War," Working Papers 05-15, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Martin Gassebner & Noel Gaston & Michael Lamla, 2008. "The Inverse Domino Effect: Are Economic Reforms Contagious?," KOF Working papers 08-187, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Michelle R. Garfinkel & Stergios Skaperdas & Constantinos Syropoulos, 2009. "International Trade and Transnational Insecurity: How Comparative Advantage and Power are Jointly Determined," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Vincent Vicard, 2009. "On trade creation and regional trade agreements: does depth matter?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 145(2), pages 167-187, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Nicolas Berman, 2009. "Financial Crises and International Trade: The Long Way to Recovery," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/23, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  9. Martin, Philippe & Mayer, Thierry & Thoenig, Mathias, 2008. "Civil Wars and International Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 6659, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Polachek, Solomon & Xiang, Jun, 2008. "How Opportunity Costs Decrease the Probability of War in an Incomplete Information Game," IZA Discussion Papers 3883, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  11. Michelle R. Garfinkel & Stergios Skaperdas & Constantinos Syropoulos, 2008. "Globalization and Insecurity: Reviewing Some Basic Issues," Working Papers 080901, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Alessandro Nicita & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2007. "Information and Export Performance," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 95-111, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Conconi, Paola & Sahuguet, Nicolas & Zanardi, Maurizio, 2008. "Democratic Peace and Electoral Accountability¤," CEPR Discussion Papers 6908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Dominic Rohner, 2008. "Reputation, Group Structure and Social Tensions," HiCN Working Papers 40, Households in Conflict Network. [Downloadable!]
  15. Anna Maria Mayda & Chad Steinberg, 2007. "Do South-South Trade Agreements Increase Trade? Commodity-Level Evidence from COMESA," IMF Working Papers 07/40, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry & Ries, John, 2008. "The Erosion of Colonial Trade Linkages After Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 6951, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Vincent Vicard, 2006. "Trade, Conflicts, and Political Integration: the Regional Interplays," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  18. Stéphane Auray & Aurélien Eyquem & Frédéric Jouneau-Sion, 2009. "Riots, Battles and Cycles," Cahiers de recherche 09-01, Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke, revised 05 Apr 2009. [Downloadable!]
  19. Mushed, S, Mansoob & Mamoon, Dawood, 2008. "The Consequences of Not Loving Thy Neigbor as Thyself: Trade, Democracy and Military Explainations Behind India Pakistan Rivalry," MPRA Paper 10429, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? RePEc data is maintained by each archive holder on its own website. Nothing is held centrally.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-22.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.