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Make Trade Not War?

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Author Info
PHILIPPE MARTIN
THIERRY MAYER
MATHIAS THOENIG

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Abstract

This paper analyses theoretically and empirically the relationship between military conflicts and trade. We show that the conventional wisdom that trade promotes peace is only partially true even in a model where trade is economically beneficial, military conflicts reduce trade, and leaders are rational. When war can occur because of the presence of asymmetric information, the probability of escalation is lower for countries that trade more bilaterally because of the opportunity cost associated with the loss of trade gains. However, countries more open to global trade have a higher probability of war because multilateral trade openness decreases bilateral dependence to any given country and the cost of a bilateral conflict. We test our predictions on a large data set of military conflicts on the 1950-2000 period. Using different strategies to solve the endogeneity issues, including instrumental variables, we find robust evidence for the contrasting effects of bilateral and multilateral trade openness. For proximate countries, we find that trade has had a surprisingly large effect on their probability of military conflict. Copyright © 2008 The Review of Economic Studies Limited.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2008.00492.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Review of Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 75 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (07)
Pages: 865-900
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Handle: RePEc:bla:restud:v:75:y:2008:i:3:p:865-900

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya, 2008. "The triumph of globalization at the expense of minority discriminations? – An empirical investigation on 76 countries, 1970 – 2005," MPRA Paper 11494, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Leonardo Raffo López, 2007. "El modelo de Skaperdas y Syropoulos," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 9(17), pages 153-181, July-Dece. [Downloadable!]
  3. Mirza, Daniel & Verdier, Thierry, 2007. "Are Lives a Substitute for Livelihoods? Terrorism, Security and US Bilateral Imports," CEPR Discussion Papers 6173, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Taylor, Alan & Glick, Reuven, 2005. "Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War," Working Papers 05-15, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Martin Gassebner & Noel Gaston & Michael Lamla, 2008. "The Inverse Domino Effect: Are Economic Reforms Contagious?," KOF Working papers 08-187, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Michelle R. Garfinkel & Stergios Skaperdas & Constantinos Syropoulos, 2009. "International Trade and Transnational Insecurity: How Comparative Advantage and Power are Jointly Determined," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Vincent Vicard, 2009. "On trade creation and regional trade agreements: does depth matter?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 145(2), pages 167-187, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Nicolas Berman, 2009. "Financial Crises and International Trade: The Long Way to Recovery," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/23, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  9. Martin, Philippe & Mayer, Thierry & Thoenig, Mathias, 2008. "Civil Wars and International Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 6659, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Polachek, Solomon & Xiang, Jun, 2008. "How Opportunity Costs Decrease the Probability of War in an Incomplete Information Game," IZA Discussion Papers 3883, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  11. Michelle R. Garfinkel & Stergios Skaperdas & Constantinos Syropoulos, 2008. "Globalization and Insecurity: Reviewing Some Basic Issues," Working Papers 080901, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Alessandro Nicita & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2007. "Information and Export Performance," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 95-111, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Dominic Rohner, 2008. "Reputation, Group Structure and Social Tensions," HiCN Working Papers 40, Households in Conflict Network. [Downloadable!]
  15. Anna Maria Mayda & Chad Steinberg, 2007. "Do South-South Trade Agreements Increase Trade? Commodity-Level Evidence from COMESA," IMF Working Papers 07/40, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry & Ries, John, 2008. "The Erosion of Colonial Trade Linkages After Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 6951, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Vincent Vicard, 2006. "Trade, Conflicts, and Political Integration: the Regional Interplays," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  18. Stéphane Auray & Aurélien Eyquem & Frédéric Jouneau-Sion, 2009. "Riots, Battles and Cycles," Cahiers de recherche 09-01, Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke, revised 05 Apr 2009. [Downloadable!]
  19. Mushed, S, Mansoob & Mamoon, Dawood, 2008. "The Consequences of Not Loving Thy Neigbor as Thyself: Trade, Democracy and Military Explainations Behind India Pakistan Rivalry," MPRA Paper 10429, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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