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Self-Correcting Information Cascades

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Author Info
JACOB K. GOEREE
THOMAS R. PALFREY
BRIAN W. ROGERS
RICHARD D. Mc KELVEY

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Abstract

We report experimental results from long sequences of decisions in environments that are theoretically prone to severe information cascades. Observed behaviour is much different-information cascades are ephemeral. We study the implications of a theoretical model based on quantal response equilibrium, in which the observed cascade formation/collapse/formation cycles arise as equilibrium phenomena. Consecutive cascades may reverse states, and usually such a reversal is self-correcting: the cascade switches to the correct state. These implications are supported by the data. We extend the model to allow for base rate neglect and find strong evidence for overweighting of private information. The estimated belief trajectories indicate fast and efficient learning dynamics. Copyright 2007 The Review of Economic Studies Limited.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2007.00438.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Review of Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 74 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 (07)
Pages: 733-762
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Handle: RePEc:bla:restud:v:74:y:2007:i:3:p:733-762

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Boğaçhan Çelen & Shachar Kariv, 2004. "Distinguishing Informational Cascades from Herd Behavior in the Laboratory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 484-498, June. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Dorothea Kübler & Georg Weizsäcker, 2005. "Are Longer Cascades More Stable?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 330-339, 04/05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Weizsacker, Georg, 2003. "Ignoring the rationality of others: evidence from experimental normal-form games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 145-171, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Stahl Dale O. & Wilson Paul W., 1995. "On Players' Models of Other Players: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 218-254, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Gale, Douglas, 1996. "What have we learned from social learning?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 617-628, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Lones Smith & Peter Norman Sorensen, 2006. "Informational Herding and Optimal Experimentation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1552, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Dorothea K¸bler & Georg Weizs”cker, 2004. "Limited Depth of Reasoning and Failure of Cascade Formation in the Laboratory," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 71(2), pages 425-441, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Mathias Drehmann & Jorg Oechssler & Andreas Roider, 2005. "Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets: An Internet Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1403-1426, December. [Downloadable!]
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  25. Angela Hung & Jeff Dominitz, 2004. "Homogeneous Actions and Hetergeneous Beliefs: Experimental Evidence on the Formation of Information Cascades," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 64, Econometric Society.
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Full references

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Asen Ivanov & Dan Levin & James Peck, 2008. "Study of a Small-Market Investment Game with Common and Private Values," Working Papers 0801, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Drehmann, Mathias & Oechssler, Jörg & Roider, Andreas, 2005. "Herding With and Without Payoff Externalities - An Internet Experiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 5310, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Shachar Kariv, 2005. "Overconfidence and Informational Cascades," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000406, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Celen, Bogachan & Hyndman, Kyle, 2006. "Endogenous Network Formation In the Laboratory," MPRA Paper 1440, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Jonathan E. Alevy & Michael S. Haigh & John List, 2006. "Information Cascades: Evidence from An Experiment with Financial Market Professionals," NBER Working Papers 12767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2008. "Thought and Behavior Contagion in Capital Markets," MPRA Paper 9164, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Francesco Feri & Miguel A. Meléndez-Jiménez & Giovanni Ponti & Fernando Vega Redondo, 2008. "Error Cascades in Observational Learning: An Experiment on the Chinos Game," Working Papers 2008-21, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Kets, W., 2007. "The Minority Game: An Economics Perspective," Discussion Paper 2007-53, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  9. Boðaçhan Çelen & Shachar Kariv & Andrew Schotter, 2005. "Words Speak Louder than Actions and Improve Welfare: An Experimental Test of Advice and Social Learning," Levine's Bibliography 784828000000000250, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Luca Corazzini & Ben Greiner, 2005. "Herding, Social Preferences and (Non-) Conformity," Working Paper Series in Economics 21, University of Cologne, Department of Economics, revised 24 Jan 2007. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Steffen Huck & Gabriele K. Ruchala & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2006. "Competition Fosters Trust," Discussion Papers 06-22, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Christoph Brunner & Jacob K. Goeree, 2009. "Wise crowds or wise minorities?," IEW - Working Papers iewwp439, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
  13. Boðaçhan Çelen & Shachar Kariv & Andrew Schotter, 2006. "An Experimental Test of Advice and Social Learning," Levine's Bibliography 784828000000000272, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Antonio Guarino & Marco Cipriani, 2008. "Herd Behavior in Financial Markets: An Experiment with Financial Market Professionals," IMF Working Papers 08/141, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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