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Investment under Uncertainty in Dynamic Conflicts

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Author Info
MATTIAS POLBORN

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Abstract

This paper analyses a model in which two groups repeatedly compete with each other for a prize in every time period. We assume that there is a status quo bias: if there is a fight today, yesterday's winner is in a stronger position than the other group. Hence, a change of the status quo has long-term consequences that groups need to take into account. Important applications of this model include lobbying for legislation and political transitions through revolutions. We analyse the strategic timing of attacks on the status quo, which is similar to investment decisions under uncertainty. We find that the attack threshold is considerably lower than in a comparable one-period game, and that the expenditure level necessary to change the status quo is low in comparison to the prize; this provides a possible solution to Tullock's "rent-seeking paradox" in lobbying. Copyright 2006 The Review of Economic Studies Limited.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2006.0385.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Review of Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 73 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
Pages: 505-529
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Handle: RePEc:bla:restud:v:73:y:2006:i:2:p:505-529

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  1. Johannes Münster & Klaas Staal, 2005. "War with Outsiders Makes Peace Inside," Discussion Papers 75, SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-22.

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