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An Axiomatic Model of Non-Bayesian Updating

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LARRY G. EPSTEIN

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Abstract

This paper models an agent in a three-period setting who does not update according to Bayes' Rule and who is self-aware and anticipates her updating behaviour when formulating plans. Gul and Pesendorfer's theory of temptation and self-control is a key building block. The main result is a representation theorem that generalizes (the dynamic version of) Anscombe-Aumann's theorem so that "both" the prior "and" the way in which it is updated are subjective. The model can accommodate updating biases analogous to those observed by psychologists. Copyright 2006 The Review of Economic Studies Limited.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2006.00381.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Review of Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 73 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
Pages: 413-436
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Handle: RePEc:bla:restud:v:73:y:2006:i:2:p:413-436

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Faruk Gul & Wolfgang Pesendorfer, 2004. "Self-Control and the Theory of Consumption," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 119-158, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2001. "Recursive Multiple-Priors," RCER Working Papers 485, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER). [Downloadable!]
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  3. Matthew Rabin, 1998. "Psychology and Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 11-46, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Eddie Dekel & Barton L. Lipman & Aldo Rustichini, 2005. "Temptation–Driven Preferences," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-005, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Laibson, David, 1997. "Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(2), pages 443-77, May.
  6. Eddie Dekel, 1997. "A Unique Subjective State Space for Unforeseen Contingencies," Discussion Papers 1202, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Alon Brav & J.B. Heaton, 2002. "Competing Theories of Financial Anomalies," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 575-606, March.
  8. Geanakoplos, John, 1994. "Common knowledge," Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications, in: R.J. Aumann & S. Hart (ed.), Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 40, pages 1437-1496 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Salvador Barberà & Birgit Grodal, 2002. "Preference for Flexibility and the Opportunities of Choice," Discussion Papers 02-22, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Faruk Gul & Wolfgang Pesendorfer, 2001. "Temptation and Self-Control," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1403-1435, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Klaus Nehring, 1999. "Preference for Flexibility in a Savage Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(1), pages 101-120, January.
  12. Ozdenoren, Emre, 2002. "Completing the State Space with Subjective States," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 531-539, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Perea,Andrés, 2005. "A Model of Minimal Probabilistic Belief Revision," Research Memoranda 034, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization. [Downloadable!]
  2. Eddie Dekel & Barton L. Lipman, 2009. "How (Not) to Do Decision Theory," Levine's Working Paper Archive 814577000000000339, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
  3. Chambers, Christopher P. & Hayashi, Takashi, 2005. "Bayesian consistent prior selection," Working Papers 1238, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Larry G. Epstein & Alvaro Sandroni, 2003. "Non-Bayesian Updating : A Theoretical Framework," RCER Working Papers 505, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Andrés Perea, 2009. "A Model of Minimal Probabilistic Belief Revision," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 67(2), pages 163-222, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Sadowski, Philipp, 2008. "Conditional Preference for Flexibility: Eliciting Beliefs from Behavior," MPRA Paper 8614, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Takashi Hayashi, 2008. "Context dependence and consistency in dynamic choice under uncertainty: the case of anticipated regret," KIER Working Papers 659, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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