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Judgemental Overconfidence, Self-Monitoring, and Trading Performance in an Experimental Financial Market

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Author Info
Bruno Biais
Denis Hilton
Karine Mazurier
Sébastien Pouget

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Abstract

We measure the degree of overconfidence in judgement (in the form of miscalibration, "i.e." the tendency to overestimate the precision of one's information) and self-monitoring (a form of attentiveness to social cues) of 245 participants and also observe their behaviour in an experimental financial market under asymmetric information. Miscalibrated traders, underestimating the conditional uncertainty about the asset value, are expected to be especially vulnerable to the winner's curse. High self-monitors are expected to behave strategically and achieve superior results. Our empirical results show that miscalibration reduces and self-monitoring enhances trading performance. The effect of the psychological variables is strong for men but non-existent for women. Copyright The Review of Economic Studies Limited, 2005.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2005.00333.x
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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Review of Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 72 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
Pages: 287-312
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Handle: RePEc:bla:restud:v:72:y:2005:i:2:p:287-312

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2003. "Overconfidence and Trading Volume," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 03-07, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Anderson, Matthew J. & Sunder, Shyam, 1995. "Professional Traders as Intuitive Bayesians," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 185-202, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Camerer, Colin, . "Progress and Behavioral Game Theory," Working Papers 1004, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  5. Smith, Vernon L, 1985. "Experimental Economics: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 264-72, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1991. " Volatility, Efficiency, and Trading: Evidence from the Japanese Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1765-89, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Noeth, Markus & Camerer, Colin F. & Plott, Charles R. & Webber, Martin, 1999. "Information Aggregation in Experimental Asset Markets: Traps and Misaligned Beliefs," Working Papers 1060, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Camerer, Colin F. & Hogarth, Robin M., 1999. "The Effects of Financial Incentives in Experiments: A Review and Capital-Labor-Production Framework," Working Papers 1059, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Camerer, Colin F & Hogarth, Robin M, 1999. "The Effects of Financial Incentives in Experiments: A Review and Capital-Labor-Production Framework," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 19(1-3), pages 7-42, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Isaac, R Mark & Walker, James M, 1988. "Group Size Effects in Public Goods Provision: The Voluntary Contributions Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 179-99, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. BIAIS, Bruno & POUGET, Sébastien, 2000. "Microstructure, Incentives, and the Discovery of Equilibrium in Experimental Financial Markets," IDEI Working Papers 103, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli, 2007. "Information Acquisition and Portfolio Performance," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/45, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Gloede, Oliver & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2009. "Financial professionals' overconfidence: Is it experience, job, or attitude?," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-428, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
  3. Richard Deaves & Erik Lüders & Michael Schröder, 2005. "The dynamics of overconfidence: Evidence from stock market forecasters," CoFE Discussion Paper 05-10, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
  4. Beckmann, Daniela & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2008. "Will Women Be Women? Analyzing the Gender Difference among Financial Experts," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-391, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. BIAIS, Bruno & WEBER, Martin, 2008. "Hindsight Bias and Investment Performance," IDEI Working Papers 476, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
  6. Benoît, Jean-Pierre & Dubra, Juan, 2008. "Overconfidence?," MPRA Paper 765, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Hopfensitz, Astrid & Wranik, Tanja, 2008. "Psychological and environmental determinants of myopic loss aversion," MPRA Paper 9305, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  8. Glaser, Markus & Langer, Thomas & Weber, Martin, 2005. "Overconfidence of Professionals and Lay Men: Individual Differences Within and Between Tasks?," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-25, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  9. Frank Caliendo & Kevin X.D. Huang, 2007. "Overconfidence and Consumption over the Life Cycle," Working Papers 0712, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University. [Downloadable!]
  10. Deaves, Richard & Lüders, Erick & Schröder, Michael, 2005. "The Dynamics of Overconfidence: Evidence from Stock Market Forecasters," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-83, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  11. Mark Grinblatt & Matti Keloharju, 2006. "Sensation Seeking, Overconfidence, and Trading Activity," NBER Working Papers 12223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2005. "Overconfidence and Trading Volume," SIFR Research Report Series 40, Institute for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
  13. Andersson, Patric, 2005. "Overconfident but yet well-calibrated and underconfident: A research note on judgmental miscalibration and flawed self-assessment," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-37, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
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