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Market News in Commodity Price Theory: Application to the Ethiopian GrainMarket

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  • Theresa Osborne

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of "news" or advance information about futurep roduction on competitive storage behaviour and prices using a structural model of commodity markets. In particular, it generalizes the neoclassical storage model to incorporate information on future harvests, while allowing for seasonal production, two features important to African and other developing country grain markets. The model is first developed to suit the case of the Ethiopian grain markets, and a general model is then stated. The effects on welfare and price variability of the addition of news are discussed, a swell as changes in key demand and uncertainty parameters. The model is shown to replicate some features of the data better than the model without news, particularly the high autocorrelation in price, and performs better in formal estimation. However, it appears that the incorporation of news still fails to explain the extreme seasonal price movements observed. Copyright The Review of Economic Studies Limited, 2004.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 71 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (01)
Pages: 133-164

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Handle: RePEc:bla:restud:v:71:y:2004:i:1:p:133-164

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Cited by:
  1. Osborne, Theresa, 2005. "Imperfect competition in agricultural markets: evidence from Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 405-428, April.
  2. Xue-Zhong He & Frank H. Westerhoff, 2004. "Commodity Markets, Price Limiters and Speculative Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 136, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  3. Christophe Gouel, 2013. "Comparing Numerical Methods for Solving the Competitive Storage Model," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(2), pages 267-295, February.
  4. Mark Coppejans & Donna Gilleskie & Holger Sieg & Koleman Strumpf, . "Consumer Demand under Price Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from the Market for Cigarettes," GSIA Working Papers 2006-E43, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  5. Fulgence J. Mishili & Anna A. Temu & Joan Fulton & J. Lowenberg-DeBoer, 2009. "Consumer Preferences As Drivers Of The Common Bean Trade In Tanzania: A Marketing Perspective," Working Papers 09-02, Purdue University, College of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics.
  6. Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Ayalew Birru, Yohannes, 2009. "Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in an Agricultural Economy: The Case of Ethiopia," Working Papers in Economics 347, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.

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