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Learning and Equilibrium Selection in a Monetary Overlapping Generations Model with Sticky Prices

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  • Klaus Adam

Abstract

We study adaptive learning in a monetary overlapping generations model with sticky prices and monopolistic competition for the case where learning agents observe current endogenous variables. Observability of current variables is essential for informational consistency of the learning setup with the model setup but generates multiple temporary equilibria when prices are flexible and prevents a straightforward construction of the learning dynamics. Sticky prices overcome this problem by avoiding simultaneity between prices and price expectations. Adaptive learning then robustly selects the determinate (monetary) steady state independent from the degree of imperfect competition. The indeterminate (non-monetary) steady state and non-stationary equilibria are never stable. Stability in a deterministic version of the model may differ because perfect foresight equilibria can be the limit of restricted perceptions equilibria of the stochastic economy with vanishing noise and thereby inherit different stability properties. This discontinuity at the zero variance of shocks suggests one should analyse learning in stochastic models. Copyright The Review of Economic Studies Limited, 2003.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 70 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 887-907

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Handle: RePEc:bla:restud:v:70:y:2003:i:4:p:887-907

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References

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  1. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
  3. Ramon Marimon & Shyam Sunder, 1993. "Indeterminacy of equilibria in a hyperinflationary world: Experimental evidence," Economics Working Papers 25, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  4. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
  5. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1994. "Convergence of least squares learning to a non-stationary equilibrium," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 131-136, October.
  6. Lettau, M. & Van Zandt, T., 1995. "Robustness of Adaptive Expections as an Equilibrium Selection Device," Papers 9598, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
  7. Klaus Adam, 2002. "Adaptive Learning and Cyclical Behavior of Output and Inflation," Macroeconomics 0211013, EconWPA.
  8. Duffy John, 1994. "On Learning and the Nonuniqueness of Equilibrium in an Overlapping Generations Model with Fiat Money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 541-553, December.
  9. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1995. "Genetic algorithms and inflationary economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 219-243, August.
  10. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1975. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 64, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  11. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1985. "On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 995-1045, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2008. "Stock market volatility and learning," Working Paper Series 862, European Central Bank.
  2. Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2006. "Expectational Stability in Multivariate Models," Faculty Working Papers 06/08, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  3. McCallum, Bennett T., 2007. "E-stability vis-a-vis determinacy results for a broad class of linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1376-1391, April.
  4. Klaus Adam & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Are Stationary Hyperinflation Paths Learnable?," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/15, Center for Financial Studies.
  5. Klaus Adam & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Are Hyperinflationary Paths Learnable?," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-31, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 22 Apr 2005.
  6. Martin Ellison & Joseph Pearlman, 2010. "Saddlepath Learning," Economics Series Working Papers 505, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  7. Adam, Klaus, 2005. "Experimental Evidence on the Persistence of Output and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4885, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert, 2011. "Internal rationality, imperfect market knowledge and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1224-1252, May.
  9. Adam, Klaus & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2006. "Are hyperinflation paths learnable?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2725-2748, December.

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