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Learning and Equilibrium Selection in a Monetary Overlapping Generations Model with Sticky Prices

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Klaus Adam

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Abstract

We study adaptive learning in a monetary overlapping generations model with sticky prices and monopolistic competition for the case where learning agents observe current endogenous variables. Observability of current variables is essential for informational consistency of the learning setup with the model setup but generates multiple temporary equilibria when prices are flexible and prevents a straightforward construction of the learning dynamics. Sticky prices overcome this problem by avoiding simultaneity between prices and price expectations. Adaptive learning then robustly selects the determinate (monetary) steady state independent from the degree of imperfect competition. The indeterminate (non-monetary) steady state and non-stationary equilibria are never stable. Stability in a deterministic version of the model may differ because perfect foresight equilibria can be the limit of restricted perceptions equilibria of the stochastic economy with vanishing noise and thereby inherit different stability properties. This discontinuity at the zero variance of shocks suggests one should analyse learning in stochastic models. Copyright The Review of Economic Studies Limited, 2003.

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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Review of Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 70 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 887-907
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Handle: RePEc:bla:restud:v:70:y:2003:i:4:p:887-907

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Working Papers 2000-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Klaus Adam, 2002. "Adaptive Learning and Cyclical Behavior of Output and Inflation," Macroeconomics 0211013, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Duffy John, 1994. "On Learning and the Nonuniqueness of Equilibrium in an Overlapping Generations Model with Fiat Money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 541-553, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1995. "Genetic algorithms and inflationary economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 219-243, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1985. "On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 995-1045, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Marimon, Ramon & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Indeterminacy of Equilibria in a Hyperinflationary World: Experimental Evidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1073-107, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1994. "Convergence of least squares learning to a non-stationary equilibrium," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 131-136, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Lettau, Martin & Van Zandt, Timothy, 2001. "Robustness of Adaptive Expectations as an Equilibrium Selection Device," CEPR Discussion Papers 2882, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Albert Marcet & Klaus Adam & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2008. "Stock Market Volatility and Learning," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 732.08, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Adam, Klaus & Evans, George W. & Honkapoja, Seppo, 2003. "Are Stationary Hyperinflation Paths Learnable?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Bennett T. McCallum, 2006. "E-Stability vis-a-vis Determinacy Results for a Broad Class of Linear Rational Expectations Models," NBER Working Papers 12441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Klaus Adam & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Are Hyperinflationary Paths Learnable?," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-31, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 22 Apr 2005. [Downloadable!]
  5. Adam, Klaus, 2005. "Experimental Evidence on the Persistence of Output and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4885, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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