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Strategic Delay in a Real Options Model of R&D Competition

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Author Info
Weeds, Helen

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Abstract

This paper considers irreversible investment in competing research projects with uncertain returns under a winner-takes-all patent system. Uncertainty takes two distinct forms: the technological success of the project is probabilistic, while the economic value of the patent to be won evolves stochastically over time. According to the theory of real options uncertainty generates an option value of delay, but with two competing firms the fear of preemption would appear to undermine this approach. In non-cooperative equilibrium two patterns of investment emerge depending on parameter values. In a pre-emptive leader-follower equilibrium firms invest sequentially and option values are reduced by competition. A symmetric outcome may also occur, however, in which investment is more delayed than the single-firm counterpart. Comparing this with the optimal cooperative investment pattern, investment is found to be more delayed when firms act non-cooperatively as each holds back from investing in the fear of starting a patent race. Implications of the analysis for empirical and policy issues in R&D are considered. Copyright 2002 by The Review of Economic Studies Limited

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Review of Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 69 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 729-47
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Handle: RePEc:bla:restud:v:69:y:2002:i:3:p:729-47

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Fudenberg, Drew & Gilbert, Richard & Stiglitz, Joseph & Tirole, Jean, 1983. "Preemption, leapfrogging and competition in patent races," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-31, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Reinganum, Jennifer F, 1981. "On the Diffusion of New Technology: A Game Theoretic Approach," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(3), pages 395-405, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Maskin, Eric & Tirole, Jean, 1988. "A Theory of Dynamic Oligopoly, I: Overview and Quantity Competition with Large Fixed Costs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(3), pages 549-69, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Grenadier, Steven R, 1996. " The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1653-79, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Lee, Tom & Wilde, Louis L, 1980. "Market Structure and Innovation: A Reformulation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 429-36, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Dutta, P.K. & Rustichini, A., 1991. "A Theory of stopping Time Games with Applications to Product Innovations and Asset Sales," RCER Working Papers 263, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  9. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. repec:fth:coluec:549 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Marcel Boyer & Pierre Lasserre & Thomas Mariotti & Michel Moreaux, 2001. "Real Options, Preemption, and the Dynamics of Industry Investments," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-64, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Flavia Cortelezzi & Pierpaolo Giannoccolo, 2006. "Strategic Urban Development under Uncertainty," Working Papers 20060601, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, Dipartimento di Statistica, revised Jun 2006. [Downloadable!]
  3. Mason, R. & Weeds, H., 2000. "Networks, Options and Preemption," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 575, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. BOBTCHEFF Catherine, 2008. "Real Options and Technology Choice under Bertrand Competition," Working Papers 08.16.260, LERNA, University of Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
  5. Adriana Breccia & Hector Salgado-Banda, 2005. "Competing or Colluding in a Stochastic Framework," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0504, Birkbeck, School of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Czarnitzki, Dirk & Toole, Andrew A., 2008. "The R&D Investment-Uncertainty Relationship: Do Competition and Firm Size Matter?," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-013, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  7. Thomas Sparla, 2000. "Closure Options in Duopoly: The Case of Second-Mover Advantages," Discussion Papers in Economics 01_06, University of Dortmund, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Lint, O., 2000. "Retrospective insights from real options in R&D," ECIS Working Papers 00.09, Eindhoven Centre for Innovation Studies, Eindhoven University of Technology. [Downloadable!]
  9. J.J.J. Thijssen & K.J.M. Huisman & P.M. Kort, 2003. "The Effects of Information on Strategic Investment and Welfare," Trinity Economics Papers 200310, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Marcel Boyer & Pierre Lasserre & Michel Moreaux, 2007. "The Dynamics of Industry Investments," CIRANO Working Papers 2007s-09, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  11. Flavia Cortelezzi & Giovanni Villani, 2007. "Strategic Technology Adoption and Market Dynamics as Option Games," Quaderni DSEMS 14-2007, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia. [Downloadable!]
  12. Marco, Alan, 2001. "The Option Value of Patent Litigation: Theory and Evidence," Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series 52, Vassar College Department of Economics, revised Dec 2003. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 1999. "Effects of strategic interactions on the option value of waiting," Discussion Paper 92, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  14. Murat F. Iyigun & X. Maggie Chen, 2004. "Strategic R&D Delays Generate Market Power," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 213, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  15. David A. Miller, 2005. "Invention under uncertainty and the threat of ex post entry," Industrial Organization 0510001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Mason, Robin & Weeds, Helen, 2001. "Irreversible Investment with Strategic Interactions," CEPR Discussion Papers 3013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Ulrich Pape & Stephan Schmidt-Tank, 2005. "Valuing Joint Ventures Using Real Options," Finance 0503030, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  18. Adriana Breccia & Hector Salgado-Banda, 2006. "Competing or Colluding in a Stochastic Environment," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 423, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  19. Jacco Thijssen, 2007. "Ramsey Waits: A Theory of Non-Exclusive Real Options with First-Mover Advantages," Discussion Papers 07/17, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
  20. Mason, Robin & Weeds, Helen, 2002. "The Failing Firm Defence: Merger Policy and Entry," CEPR Discussion Papers 3664, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. Thijssen, J.J.J. & Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2002. "Symmetric equilibrium strategies in game theoretical real option models," Discussion Paper 81, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  22. Kort, P.M. & Huisman, K.J.M. & Pawlina, G. & Thijssen, J.J., 2003. "Strategic investment under uncertainty: merging real options with game theory," Discussion Paper 6, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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