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The Mixing Problem in Programme Evaluation

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  • Manski, Charles F

Abstract

A common concern of evaluation studies is to learn the distribution of outcomes when a specified treatment policy, or assignment rule, determines the treatment received by each member of a specified population. Recent studies have emphasized evaluation of policies providing the same treatment to all members of the population. In particular, experiments with randomized treatments have this objective. Social programmes mandating homogeneous treatment of the population are of interest, but so are ones in which treatment varies across the population. This paper examines the use of empirical evidence on programmes with homogeneous treatments to infer the outcomes that would occur if treatment were to vary across the population. Experimental evidence from the Perry Pre-school Project is used to illustrate the inferential problem and the main findings of the analysis. Copyright 1997 by The Review of Economic Studies Limited.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 64 (1997)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 537-53

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Handle: RePEc:bla:restud:v:64:y:1997:i:4:p:537-53

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  1. Manski, C.F. & Sandefur, G.D. & Mclanahan, S. & Powers, D., 1990. "Alternative Estimates Of The Effect Of Family Stucture During Adolescence On Hight School Graduation," Working papers 90-31, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  2. Horowitz, J.L. & Manski, C.F., 1992. "Identification and Robustness in the Presence of Errors in Data," Working Papers 92-05, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
  3. Manski, C.F., 1990. "The Selection Problem," Working papers 90-12, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  4. Heckman, James J & Honore, Bo E, 1990. "The Empirical Content of the Roy Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(5), pages 1121-49, September.
  5. Bjorklund, Anders & Moffitt, Robert, 1987. "The Estimation of Wage Gains and Welfare Gains in Self-selection," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(1), pages 42-49, February.
  6. Robinson, Chris, 1989. "The Joint Determination of Union Status and Union Wage Effects: Some Tests of Alternative Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 639-67, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Guido W. Imbens, 2010. "Better LATE Than Nothing: Some Comments on Deaton (2009) and Heckman and Urzua (2009)," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 399-423, June.
  2. Manski, C.F., 1995. "Learning About Social Programs from Experiments with Random Assignment of Treatments," Working papers 9505, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  3. Guido W. Imbens & Whitney K. Newey, 2002. "Identification and Estimation of Triangular Simultaneous Equations Models Without Additivity," NBER Technical Working Papers 0285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Sergio Firpo, 2007. "Efficient Semiparametric Estimation of Quantile Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(1), pages 259-276, 01.
  5. Caliendo, Marco & Hujer, Reinhard & Thomsen, Stephan L., 2005. "Identifying Effect Heterogeneity to Improve the Effiency of Job Creation Schemes in Germany?," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-21, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  6. Caliendo, Marco & Steiner, Viktor, 2005. "Aktive Arbeitsmarktpolitik in Deutschland : Bestandsaufnahme und Bewertung der mikroökonomischen Evaluationsergebnisse (Active labour market policy in Germany * review ans assessment of the microecon," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 38(2/3), pages 396-418.
  7. John V. Pepper, 1999. "What Do Welfare-to-Work Demonstrations Reveal to Welfare Reformers?," Virginia Economics Online Papers 317, University of Virginia, Department of Economics.
  8. Marco Caliendo & Viktor Steiner, 2005. "Aktive Arbeitsmarktpolitik in Deutschland: Bestandsaufnahme und Bewertung der mikroökonomischen Evaluationsergebnisse," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 515, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  9. Charles F. Manski, 2001. "Designing Programs for Heterogeneous Populations: The Value of Covariate Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 103-106, May.
  10. V. Joseph Hotz & Guido W. Imbens & Julie H. Mortimer, 1999. "Predicting the Efficacy of Future Training Programs Using Past Experiences," NBER Technical Working Papers 0238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Tomas J. Philipson, 2000. "External Treatment Effects and Program Implementation Bias," NBER Technical Working Papers 0250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. repec:iab:iabzaf:v:38:i:2/3:p:396-418 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Manski, Charles F., 2000. "Identification problems and decisions under ambiguity: Empirical analysis of treatment response and normative analysis of treatment choice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 415-442, April.
  14. Fan, Yanqin & Park, Sang Soo, 2009. "Partial identification of the distribution of treatment effects and its confidence sets," MPRA Paper 37148, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Charles F. Manski, 1999. "Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations: With Application to Randomized Experiments," NBER Technical Working Papers 0242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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