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Diffusion of Technical Change and the Decomposition of Output into Trend and Cycle

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Author Info
Lippi, Marco
Reichlin, Lucrezia

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Abstract

In this paper, the authors argue that modeling the trend component in real GNP as a random walk is inconsistent with its interpretation as productivity growth. As an alternative, they specify the trend as an ARIMA whose impulse response function follows an S-shaped pattern reflecting the process of diffusion of technical change. Such an ARIMA is employed to build and estimate an UCARIMA using U.S. postwar quarterly data. The authors find that their model, although more parsimonious, fits the data equally as well as the standard random walk plus AR(2) cycle. Moreover, their model has a very low cycle/trend variance ratio. Copyright 1994 by The Review of Economic Studies Limited.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Review of Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 61 (1994)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 19-30
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Handle: RePEc:bla:restud:v:61:y:1994:i:1:p:19-30

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  2. Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure," CEPR Discussion Papers 2137, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Gabor Vadas & Zsolt Darvas, 2005. "Univariate Potential Output Estimations for Hungary," Macroeconomics 0512009, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Cliff L. F. Attfield & Jonathan R. W. Temple, 2006. "Balanced growth and the great ratios: new evidence for the US and UK," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 75, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  5. David Andolfatto & Glenn MacDonald, 1998. "Technology Diffusion and Aggregate Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 338-370, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Cellini, Roberto & Paolino, Alessandro, 2007. "Price of recreational products and the exchange rate: an empirical investigation on US data," MPRA Paper 5194, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Timothy Cogley, 1997. "Evaluating non-structural measures of the business cycle," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-21. [Downloadable!]
  8. Guay, A & St-Amant, P, 1996. "Do Mechanical Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Technical Reports 78, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Urzúa, Carlos M., 2007. "A Back-of-the-Envelope Rule to Identify Atheoretical VARs," EGAP Working Papers 2007-03, Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1997. "Do the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 53, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal. [Downloadable!]
  11. Schumacher, Christian, 2000. "Forecasting Trend Output in the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 26245, Hamburg Institute of International Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Boyan Jovanovic, 2004. "Asymmetric Cycles," NBER Working Papers 10573, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Pistoresi, Barbara & Strozzi, Chiara, 2001. "Rent Sharing in Wage Determination: Evidence from Italy," CEPR Discussion Papers 2939, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Cliff L.F. Attfield & Jonathan R.W. Temple, 2003. "Measuring trend output: how useful are the Great Ratios?," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 03/555, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Isabel Kit-Ming Yan & Guoxin Liu, 2007. "The Aggregated Structural-Change Model," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(2), pages 1-10. [Downloadable!]
  16. Iris Claus, 1999. "Estimating potential output for New Zealand: a structural VAR approach," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  17. Lalonde, René & Page, Jennifer & St-Amant, Pierre, 1998. "Une nouvelle méthode d'estimation de l'écart de production et son application aux États-Unis, au Canada et à l'Allemagne," Working Papers 98-21, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  18. Clifford L.F. Attfield, 2003. "Structural Breaks and Permanent Trends," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 03/545, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK. [Downloadable!]
  19. Jonathan Temple & Cliff Attfield, 2004. "Measuring trend growth: how useful are the great ratios?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 101, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  20. Mark S Astley & Tony Yates, . "Inflation and real disequilibria," Bank of England working papers 103, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  21. Chantal Dupasquier & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1997. "A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap," Working Papers 97-5, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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