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Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models

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Author Info
Bertola, Giuseppe
Svensson, Lars E O

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Abstract

A time-varying stochastic devaluation risk is introduced in a model of exchange rate target zones. The model produces realistic patterns of covariation between exchange rates and interest rate differentials, which previous target zone models have been unable to do. A 'drift adjustment' method to estimate devaluation expectations from data is suggested. Copyright 1993 by The Review of Economic Studies Limited.

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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Review of Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 60 (1993)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 689-712
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Handle: RePEc:bla:restud:v:60:y:1993:i:3:p:689-712

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo, 1990. "Target Zones and Realignments," CEPR Discussion Papers 398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Krugman, Paul R, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Delgado, F. & Dumas, B., 1990. "Monetary Contracting Between Central Banks And The Design Of Sustainable Exchange-Rate Zones," Weiss Center Working Papers 20-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  4. W. R. M. Perraudin, 1990. "Exchange Rate Bands with Point Process Fundamentals," IMF Working Papers 90/108, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Miller, Marcus & Weller, Paul, 1989. "Exchange Rate Bands and Realignments in a Stationary Stochastic Setting," CEPR Discussion Papers 299, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose & Donald J. Mathieson, 1990. "Is the EMS the perfect fix? An empirical exploration of exchange rate target zones," International Finance Discussion Papers 388, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Francisco Delgado & Bernard Dumas, 1990. "Monetary Contracting Between Central Banks and the Design of SustainableExchange-Rate Zones," NBER Working Papers 3440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Froot, Kenneth & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Under Stochastic Regime Shifts: A Unified Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 522, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Francisco Delgado & Bernard Dumas, . "Monetary Contracting between Central Banks and the Design of Sustainable Exchange-Rate Zones (Reprint 035)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 20-90, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  10. Meese, Richard A & Rose, Andrew K, 1990. "Nonlinear, Nonparametric, Nonessential Exchange Rate Estimation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 192-96, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Klein, Michael W., 1992. "Big effects of small interventions: The informational role of intervention in exchange rate policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 915-924, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo, 1991. "Sustainable Intervention Policies and Exchange Rate Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 504, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Delgado, F. & Dumas, B., 1990. "Monetary Contracting Between Central Banks And The Design Of Sustainable Exchange-Rate Zones," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 360, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
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